Daily market wire 21 March 2017

Lachstock Consulting, March 21, 2017

Overview of currency and futures markets:

lackstock1Prices were lower for grains and mixed for oilseeds.

  • CBOT Wheat May contract was down 6.5c at 429.75c,
  • Kansas wheat down 8.5c to 445c,
  • corn down 4.25c to 363.25c,
  • soybeans down 1.75c to 998.25c,
  • Winnipeg canola up 1.70$C to 505.4$C,
  • Matif canola unchanged at 407.75€,
  • Dow Jones down -8.76 to 20905.86,
  • Crude Oil down -.54c to 48.14c,
  • AUD up to 0.773c,
  • CAD up to 1.335c, (AUDCAD 1.032),
  • EUR up to 1.073c (AUDEUR 0.719).


Wheat had the biggest sell-off, coming under pressure from an improved weather forecast in the HRW belt, which is expected to give adequate rainfall to most of the areas. From an exports point of view, no new factors are at play, and the outlook for Black Sea new-crop is looking reasonable. Agricultural products from Russia have had a temporary hold placed on them from Turkish buyers. Russian wheat values softened slightly last week in USD terms due to weakness in the ruble.


Soybeans values closed slightly lower, there was underlying from the COT report, which saw a large reduction in the long position. Brazil’s currency rallied, which was positive for US exports. No major inputs from the consumptive side of the market are to be seen, with China fairly quiet.


Canola managed a higher close for the first time in a few sessions, as technical buying helped support values. Bean oil strength was also a supporting factor.


Corn rallied early in the session, as the COT announcement of a speculative position changing from long to short surprised the market. Export sales were good, which helped buoy things early, but could not be sustained as in the face of looming sentiment created by large South American crops. Weatherwise, the corn belt in the US is looking to warm up soon, though forecast rainfall is expected to hold up farmers from planting. China prices remain stable as new-crop acres are forecast to be on the low side.


The weather outlook remains positive for the major production regions in eastern states. The big story is the result of the Saudi tender which was announced overnight; 1.5 million tonnes was sold for May-June delivery at values which work back to around $181 track equivalent in Victoria. Unlike the previous tender with a lot of participants, this only consisted of three sellers, Glencore (610), Holbud (840), Concordia (60). This will keep prices supported in the interim, and it will be interesting to see how this influences Chinese buying.


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