Canola, gaining 2 percent overnight, led soybeans firmer. The Dow Jones Industrials Average gained 1 percent, the US dollar index eased and the Australian dollar gained almost 1 percent. International wheat markets eased a little.

• Chicago December 2024 wheat down US5.5c/bu to 597c/bu
• Kansas December 2024 wheat down 1.5c/bu to 601.75c/bu
• Minneapolis December 2024 wheat down 2.25c/bu to 682c/bu
• MATIF wheat December 2024 down €0.50/t to €217/t;
• Corn December 2024 up 1.5c/bu to 474.75c/bu;
• Soybeans November 2024 up 19c/bu to 1200.25c/bu;
• Winnipeg canola November 2024 up C$13.20/t to $663.50/t
• MATIF rapeseed November 2024 up €6.50/t to €457/t
• ASX May 2024 wheat up A$2.50/t to $327.50/t;
• ASX January 2025 wheat up A$3.50/t to $343/t
• ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$294.50/t;
• ASX January 2025 barley unchanged at A$296.30/t
• AUD dollar up 55 points to US$0.6586.

The European Commission has sent a provisional agreement to Parliament for approval for the extension of tariff-free access for Ukrainian grains until Jun 2025, including an ‘emergency brake’ whereby tariffs would be imposed on oats and maize if arrivals exceed the average of 2022 and 2023 imports. Polish farmers blocked roads with tractors and flares yesterday as protest leaders said they were not happy with the agreement as they wanted quotas based on figures from before the war in Ukraine began, when imports were much lower. 

Ukraine Agriculture Ministry reported that as at 15 March, most winter grain crops were rated in good or satisfactory condition following favourable weather between Dec and Feb. 

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) revised 2024-25 all wheat production up by 0.7Mt, to 34.6Mt (32.0Mt previous year), consumption up by 0.2Mt, to 9.3Mt (8.6Mt), exports up by 0.2Mt, to 24.6Mt (23.5Mt) and ending stocks up by 0.2Mt, to 4.4Mt (3.6Mt). Durum production was revised up by 0.3Mt, to 5.7Mt (4.0Mt), exports up by 0.1Mt, to 4.5Mt (3.2Mt) and ending stocks up by 0.1Mt, to 0.8Mt (0.5Mt). Barley production was revised up by 0.2Mt, to 9.5Mt (8.9Mt) and ending stocks up to 1.3Mt (1.0Mt). Maize production was revised up by 0.6Mt, to 14.9Mt (15.1Mt). Canola production was cut by 0.3Mt to 18.1Mt (18.3Mt), consumption up by 0.1Mt, to 10.9Mt (11.1Mt) and ending stocks down by 0.3Mt, to 1.7Mt (2.0Mt). 

Egypt’s GASC reportedly purchased 50kt Bulgarian wheat and 60kt Romanian wheat in its latest tender that attracted Russian, Romanian, Bulgarian and French origin offers. No values were reported yet. 

Jordan’s state grains buyer seeks 120kt feed barley in an international tender for Jul/Aug shipment. 

Algeria’s state grains agency reportedly purchased 100-200kt durum at US$390-$395/t c&f, for April shipment. 

US private exporters reported sales of 120kt soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year. 

Australia

The ASX May 2024 wheat contract ended the day up A$2.50/t yesterday at $327.50/t. Canola values have continued to rally on the back of offshore moves which has seen an increase in liquidity.

The BOM Climate Driver update notes that four out of seven climate models indicate that the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña), and all models are indicating neutral in May. While three out of seven international models are predicting a La Niña by late winter, El Niño and La Niña predictions made in early autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with caution. ENSO forecasts have historically had their lowest skill for forecasts issued in April, with skill increasing from May.

Lineups data shows there is 3.5Mt of total grain on the stem for March, down from 3.64Mt last week. Wheat comprises 2.3Mt, barley 715kt, canola 480kt and sorghum 12.9kt. Average wait times eased slightly this week and there are currently 10 vessels anchored and 10 loading at Australian grain ports.