Markets

Daily Market Wire 21 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 21, 2024

Wheat rallied 4 percent.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat up US35c/bu to 731.5c/bu;
  • Kansas December 2024 wheat up 34.5c/bu to 731.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis December 2024 wheat up 28.25c/bu to 764.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2024 up €10/t to €262/t;
  • Corn December 2024 up 7.75c/bu to 484.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans November 2024 up 13.5c/bu to 1216.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2024 unchanged at C$680.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2024 up €5.25/t to €492/t;
  • ASX January 2025 wheat down $0.70/t to $393.30/t;
  • ASX January 2025 barley up $1.50/t to $340/t;
  • AUD dollar down 25 points to US$0.6668.

International

Russian wheat production forecasts continue to be cut with Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies IKAR reportedly taking another 2 million tonnes (Mt) off its estimate, now at 84Mt, with other estimates now getting down to the 80Mt mark. 

The Russian Grain Union pegged 2024-25 wheat production at 86.8Mt, with exports in 2024-25 (Jul/Jun) at 46.9Mt. Maize production was forecast at 15.3Mt, with exports at 5.3Mt, barley production at 19.3Mt, exports at 4.3Mt.

Alberta Crop Report for the week ending 14 May said rainfall across large parts of the province hampered planting progress but boosted soil moisture and growing conditions. Soil moisture ratings were seen 72pc good/excellent (58pc five-year avg), with most areas registering good readings, except for the Peace region, where moisture was rated at 42pc good/excellent. Crop year 2024-25 plantings were estimated 33pc complete (55pc previous year, 28pc five-year avg), including spring wheat at 45pc (70pc previous year), barley at 33pc (54pc) and canola at 15pc (39pc). 

Chinese Customs data shows April corn imports at 1.2Mt (+18pc from April 2023), with cumulative 2024 (Jan-Dec) at 9.1Mt (+7pc). Wheat at 2.0Mt (+16pc), cumulative at 6.2Mt (+3pc), barley at 1.6Mt (+61pc), cumulative 6.1Mt (+124pc) and sorghum at 810kt (+71pc), cumulative 3.0Mt (+202pc). 

APK-Inform reported that recent severe frosts across Ukraine’s northern and eastern regions could reduce this year’s grain and oilseed harvest, with cold temps damaging wheat, barley and rapeseed crops estimating 20pc to 30pc of yield could be lost. 

According to Ag Ministry data Ukraine’s 2023-24 grain exports had reached 44.4Mt by May 20, compared with 44.6Mt last year, with 3Mt going out in May. The total includes 16.6Mt of wheat, almost 25Mt of corn and 2.3Mt of barley. 

EU vegetable oil and protein meal industry association FEDIOL data shows April oilseed crush at 3.3Mt, down from 3.6Mt in March but the same as April last year. Cumulative 2024 (Jan-Dec) crush is now at 13.7Mt (13.1Mt previous year), including soybeans at 4.7Mt (4.6Mt), sunflower seeds at 2.1Mt (1.9Mt) and canola at 6.8Mt (6.5Mt). 

Reuters reports that Argentine farmers had only sold 31pc of an expected soy harvest of 49.7Mt by early May, their slowest pace since at least 2014-15, reflecting a mix of poor weather and low prices.

Australia

Local markets followed the offshore lead yesterday with the ASX Jan 25 wheat contract ending the day down slightly at A$393.30/t. The same theme continues with everyone watching the rainfall forecast. We are getting to the pointy end of optimal planting for cereals, while the canola window is now past. If we get the rain on the 10-day forecast, it could make all the difference of getting intended area in the ground and a much friendlier June outlook could turn the season around.

Australian Crop Forecasters have tipped the total area planted to canola to be down 6pc in 2024-25 at 3.1 million hectares with production, at 5.4Mt, expected to be down 5pc from last year. Wheat area is tipped to increase by 1pc to 13.5 million hectares with production increasing 11pc to 29.3Mt. Barley area is expected to be up 4pc at 4.5 million hectares and production to increase 7pc to 11.2Mt.

 

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