Daily market wire 21 November 2017

Lachstock Consulting November 21, 2017

Overnight futures markets:

Mixed for grains and lower for oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat was down -5.25c to 422c,
  • Kansas wheat down -6c to 416c,
  • corn up 2c to 345c,
  • Soybean down -0.25c to 1001.25c,
  • Winnipeg Canola down -3.10$C to 524.1$C,
  • Matif canola down -3.5€ to 375.25€.
  • The Dow Jones up 92.10 to 23450.35,
  • Crude Oil down -0.459c to 56.09c,
  • AUD down to 0.754c,
  • CAD up to 1.280c, (AUDCAD 0.966)
  • EUR down to 1.173c (AUDEUR 0.643).


Order flow, or lack of it, was the catalyst for today’s declines in wheat. The late rally last week, saw a reasonable amount of short covering, which helped to prevent further buying. A stronger USD also added to the sour note, discouraging wheat bids. On top of this, wheat looks to be being laid off against bean and corn length, which may see it, push to oversold territory. Russian cash prices stable at $193 FOB FOR 12.5%. Implied vol in Dec SRW went out at 16.96%. Its hard to see anything fundamental impacting wheat in the near future, though Dec deliveries will be interesting to watch particularly in Kansas futures.


Soybeans were basically unchanged, after some early selling pressure. Exports came in at 2.1mmt, which was at market expectations, but not enough to excite a bid. Soymeal was down $1/tonne while soy oil was down 43 points. South American weather is not posing any immediate threats, which discouraged any active buying today.


Canola came under pressure from weakness in veg oil markets. The Indian government raised their palm oil import tax to 30%, which saw palm futures tumble, spilling over into other oilseed markets.


Corn found follow through support from Friday’s rally, with an increased COT position and improved export prospects out of the PNW. Weekly export sales came in at 632kmt, 60% higher than last weeks figures, but behind last year’s figures. The trading range was still light today at 3.75 cents, while implied vol in Dec corn went out at 12.99%. Aside from the non-confirmed Chinese purchases off the PNW there is not much holding corn up from a fundamental perspective.


Australian market was quiet in typical Monday fashion. Weekend weather in WA looks to have done some damage with isolated hail and heavy rainfall impacting some un-harvested crops in the Kwinana and Esperance zones. Early assessments from last week’s rainfall have reported limited damage in Victoria and NSW other than delaying harvest. The 8-day forecast features 15-25mm for parts of Victoria, NSW and Western SA. This again will delay harvest and given that it’s the second rain, may cause some sprouting issues.


Source: Lachstock Consulting



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