Markets

Daily Market Wire 21 November 2018

Lachstock Consulting, November 21, 2018

Mixed for grains and oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat up 2.25c to 500.75c,
  • Kansas wheat down 1.25c to 473c,
  • Spring wheat down 1.75c to 569.75c,
  • CBOT corn down 1c to 361.25c,
  • Matif corn down €0.25 to €173
  • Soybeans up 7.25c to 881c,
  • Winnipeg canola up C$4 to $477.20,
  • Matif canola down €0.75 to €369.25
  • Dow Jones down 551.8 to 24465.64,
  • Crude oil down to US$56.76,
  • AUD down to $0.722,
  • CAD down to $0.751,
  • EUR down to $1.136.

Wheat

Wheat found mild support to finish fractions higher. Matif wheat was up €2 per tonne to €198.75/t, Black Sea wheat was up $1/t to $233.5/t, and the ruble was down 0.85 per cent to $0.015. US winter-wheat plantings are 93pc completed versus a 97pc average for this time of year, with conditions rated at 56pc good to excellent. Pakistan has authorised 500,000t of wheat exports, and the market thinks the maximum they will allow is 1.5 million tonnes (Mt) versus thoughts yesterday of 3Mt. This is old news, which has now been made official, so the market did not need to respond with much price action. Wheat stocks on-farm in Russia are down significantly on last year, with Krasnodar down 80pc, and the Northern Tier down 40pc.

Corn

Corn finished fractions lower, with limited volume and a 2.25- cent range. Private sales of 208,000t were announced to an unknown buyer, but there were also cancellations of 200,500t of existing sales. The US crop is 90pc harvested versus the five-year average of 93pc for this time of year. The Ukrainian Ag Ministry increased its corn crop by 800,000t to 34.8Mt, above the standing USDA estimate of 33.5Mt.

Soybeans

Soybeans held up well, considering the huge sell-off in crude oil. Senior White House official, Larry Kudlow, made positive comments regarding a trade resolution between China and the US, but the market has been tricked by this before, so did not respond with much enthusiasm. Soybean meal was up $1.60/t, and soy oil was up 0.02 points. A private sale of 123,000t to an unknown buyer was positive for the market, but plenty more sales will be needed to tighten the US balance sheet.

Canola

Canola futures found support in Canada after a string of negative closes. The market appears oversold for now, with order-flow helping to achieve larger gains.

Australia

Aussie cash markets stabilised yesterday as Western Australian trade and grower selling ceased.  The pressure in the barley market seems done for now, and the market is waiting to see how much price pressure the wheat harvest brings.

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