Markets tended a little firmer.
- Chicago wheat December up US4.75c/bu to 588.75c/bu;
- Kansas wheat December down 2c/bu to 729c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat December up 3.75c/bu to 783.5c/bu;
- MATIF wheat December up €1.25/t to €238.50/t;
- Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
- Corn December up 6c/bu to 482.25c/bu;
- Soybeans May 2024 up 4.5c/bu to 1353.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg November canola up C$1.80/t to $736.10/t;
- Winnipeg May 2024 canola up C$0.20/t to $757.50/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2023 up €8.75/t to €449/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €3 to €470.25/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat down A$0.50/t to $427/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley unchanged at A$370/t;
- AUD dollar eased 6 points to US$0.6448.
Black Sea market analyst SovEcon revised down the 2023-24 Russian wheat crop forecast by 0.5Mt to 91.6Mt amid worsening prospects for Siberia and the south. The outlook in Siberia deteriorated due to heavy rain and yield results in the south fell as harvest progressed. Despite a slight reduction in the Russian wheat crop estimate, wheat supply will remain high, continuing to exert pressure on global prices.
Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry will introduce a licencing system for maize, rapeseed, sunflowerseed and wheat exports to Romania, Poland, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Hungary as part of an action plan to satisfy concerns expressed by the EU states. Ukraine will coordinate with the European Commission and the five member states.
Egypt’s GASC bought 120,000t Romanian wheat in a tender that closed yesterday. GASC was seeking wheat for 1-15 Nov shipment and paid $272/t.
It is being reported that Egypt will switch to sourcing almost half a million tonnes of wheat from Russia to France and Bulgaria after Moscow objected to the pricing. The deal was booked at $270/t including freight, lower than the unofficial price floor Russian officials were trying to implement at the time.
China has reportedly booked at least 20 cargoes of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina over the past two weeks for delivery during October, November and into December.
Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to be continuing negotiations on its wheat tender which closed on Tuesday. There was no clear consensus among traders about the volume purchased but there are rumours it could be up to 700kt priced at $272/t c&f. It also purchased 30,000t feed barley from optional origins at $223.00-$225.00 c&f, Oct shipment.
Wednesday was a slower day across local markets. Grower bids were mostly softer due to offshore weakness and all that did was dry up liquidity. The local market continues to focus on the dry and hot weather, with very little on the forecast to get excited about.
Current crop feed barley in Kwinana reached $385/t FIS Kwinana via Clear Grain Exchange yesterday, and new crop WA values held around the $390/t FIS level best grower bid. Some ASW Kwinana old crop wheat traded $400/t, and new crop bids for APW1 MG in WA were lower yesterday. It was bid around $428/t FIS Kwinana and there was very little interest on the sell side.
Some early barley is being harvested around the Queensland Western Darling Downs towns of Condamine and Dulacca this week, with yields around 2.5t/ha and quality reportedly good on the early crops.
Line ups are currently showing 2.72Mt of total grain on the shipping stem for September, including 1.56Mt wheat, 682kt barley, 279kt canola and 194kt sorghum. We have seen a slight increase in average vessel wait time, with Adelaide, Brisbane, Geraldton and Kwinana all increasing, while wait time in Albany decreased. Overall, the maximum wait time is less than 8 days; there are 10 vessels anchored and 11 loading at Australian ports.