Daily Market Wire 22 August 2018

Lachstock Consulting, August 22, 2018

Lower for grains and oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat down 15c to 527.25c,
  • Kansas wheat down 12.75c to 534.5c,
  • Corn down 2.25c to 359.75c,
  • Soybeans down 7.25c to 874.5c,
  • Winnipeg canola down C$4.39 to $507.5,
  • Matif canola down €3.75 to €380.5,
  • Dow Jones up 63.60 to 25822.29,
  • Crude oil up US$0.91c to $67.35 per barrel,
  • AUD up to 0.736c,
  • CAD down to 1.303c (AUDCAD 0.960),
  • EUR up to 1.157c (AUDEUR 0.636).


With no new bullish fodder, wheat continued to sell off. Structure is proving to be a large burden, with the excessive long position in winter wheat leading prices lower. Estimates of fund selling are as high as 20,000 contracts since the start of the week. Implied volatility in Sep Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat finished at 25.25 per cent. Matif wheat was down €4.5 per tonne to €204.5 per tonne and Russian price were US$2-$3/t lower. The export pace in Russia is dominating export business, and keeping US and French exports around 40 per cent behind last year’s pace. Supply concerns are developing around the expected slowing of Russian exports, with insufficient grain in places like Argentina to satisfy consumer demand. Russia’s agricultural ministry has stated there would be no export restrictions put in place for now. The global balance sheet has potential to prompt a rally, but this will not happen unless everyone is on the same side, and it will be interesting to see if funds turn short, or whether respect for the balance sheet prevents this from happening.


Corn endured mild losses as better-than-expected yield reports circulated midway through the crop tour. Monday revealed a yield of 178 bushels per acre (bu/a) for South Dakota and 179.6bu/a from Oklahoma. Yields in Russia and the Ukraine are declining due to unfavourable weather. The extent of this damage is unknown, but it will place significant pressure on the European feed market, given its heavy dependence on imported corn.


Soybeans finished with moderate losses, thanks to politics and better-than-expected yield reports in the US. The US President softened enthusiasm of a trade resolution, stating that he did not expect much to come out of the China discussions which are being held this week with senior officials. The Pro Farmer crop tour revealed higher-than-average pod counts in Oklahoma and South Dakota. In other news, Brazil’s planting intentions are set to outdo its previous record, and planting will get under way in the next few weeks. Soymeal was down $3.30/t and soy oil was up 5 points.


Canola suffered decent losses in both contracts following price action in beans. The negative trade tone prevented any new buying despite ongoing hot and dry conditions in Canada and continued production setbacks in Europe.


Aussie prices were softer yesterday with new-crop in export states falling, while Victoria stayed reasonably firm. The futures weakness did not help, and the New South Wales consumer is happy to sit back for now and see what the rain forecast does. The eight-day forecast has improved overnight, with 15-20 millimetres now forecast with reasonable coverage in northern and central NSW. The market has potential to overreact to this rain, given that we have been on a huge flat price tear with very limited moisture. What is forecast will change sentiment but not turn grain crops, as a lot more rain is required before any balance sheet alterations occur.



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