Another quiet day in the trenches with wheat and corn managing to fight back from an early beating. The wheat market is doing its best impression of a disgruntled uni student – 52% is a pass and no more effort should be extended. The Aug-Oct wheat vacuum is all consuming and the secondary impact of the China/US trade spill is to remove any incentive for capital to enter the market.

The ProFarmer tour finally threw up some interesting news – not about yield or planted area however but about the forced exit of the USDA representatives who were reportedly threatened by a farmer who was extremely displeased about the USDA not reflecting the hardship he has faced due to the extreme wet start to the season. Some small glimmers of hope for the bulls – a chunk of corn was sold to Mexico and the forecast is indicating things will get a little chilly – jumper, not jacket. Canola futures managed small ups even with an independent increasing their Canadian production ideas. Canada is no closer to solving its spat with China which has far reaching ramifications to the global canola trade flow. EU is exceptionally tight – as reflected by Matif canola’s spread to Winnipeg which continues to price imports. However – given import restrictions around sustainable seed and GM products its not as simple as covering EU’s woes with Canadian seed.

In local markets, crops north of the Murrumbidgee River are starting to feel moisture stress, and limited rain is forecast. Additionally, frost risk to cereals could be slightly higher than normal, given these crops are running to head earlier than usual. The next four weeks will be crunch time. Markets remain steady, but bid-offer spreads have continued to widen. End-users have been rewarded for buying hand to mouth, while the trade seems more intent on focusing on new-crop rather than the back end of a forgettable trading year. This leaves the grower as the main old-crop supplier, which has created a more random trading environment than usual.