Overview of futures markets:
Mixed for grains and oilseeds, after the US public holiday.
- CBOT Wheat was down -5c to 436c,
- Kansas wheat down -4c to 452.25c,
- corn up 1c to 369.25c,
- soybeans down -6.25c to 1026.25c,
- Winnipeg canola down -1$C to 516.7$C,
- Matif canola down -2.5€ to 418.5€.
- The Dow Jones up 118.95 to 20743 ,
- Crude Oil up to 54.06c,
- AUD down to 0.76772c,
- CAD up to 1.31351c, (AUDCAD 1.00844)
- EUR down to 1.05426c (AUDEUR 0.7281).
Soybeans and canola
Soybeans futures prices were lower, despite early session strength after a weakening in weekly export sales. Brazilian harvest is underway and reporting good yields, while Argentine production forecasts are increasing. Chinese buying inquiry has decreased week on week due to declining crush margins and the task of assessing/managing the impacts of bird flu.
Canola was lower in spite of a softer Canadian dollar, under pressure with the rest of the oilseed complex.
Wheat was under pressure despite a good amount of export interest from the Middle East and Africa. It is unlikely Australia or US will price any of this business due to Black Sea availability and freight spread. Black Sea wheat has been expensive by comparison due to lack of grower selling, this is expected to continue up until new crop as logistics become a larger issue. India’s crop prospects are improving and speculation is building as to how and when they will reduce imports, some forecasting the tax to increase as early as March. This would have a negative impact on Australian wheat exports. Weekly US export inspections were ahead of expectations, with wheat now tracking 27.4% ahead of last year.
We have limited fundamental news, the AUD is slightly lower which is providing some support to domestic prices. Weekly rainfall received last week should help boost the profile for winter crop in moisture stressed parts of SQLD and NNSW. However it appears to be too late for the summer crop which suffered 6 weeks of extreme temperatures.
Source: Lachstock Consulting