Markets

Daily Market Wire 22 February 2024

Lachstock Consulting, February 22, 2024

Grain and oilseed futures closed lower across the board in overnight trading.

  • Chicago May 2024 wheat down US1.25c/bu to 578c/bu;
  • Kansas May 2024 wheat down 6.5c/bu to 574.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis May 2024 wheat down 4c/bu to 661.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2024 down €1.75/t to €197.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 down 8.25c/bu to 428.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 down 18.5c/bu to 1165c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 down C$9.30/t to $584.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €4/t to €422.25/t;
  • AUD dollar up 3 points to US$0.6552.

International

SovEcon notes that prices for Russian 12.5pc wheat dropped to US$218-224/t FOB last week, the lowest level since September 2020. The prices declined amid challenging conditions in the global market and weakened government price regulation. It notes that the decline in prices has seen sales of Russian wheat notably increase. 

Shipping traffic on the Parana River in Argentina was temporarily suspended following the grounding of a wheat vessel, with ships prevented from entering or leaving the Port of Rosario. Following the re-opening of the waterway, grains/oilseeds carriers were instructed to reduce loading volumes, while damage to the channel was assessed. 

Refinitiv Commodities Research have cut their 2024-25 French common wheat production forecast by 1.3Mt to 123.2Mt (125.8Mt previous year), with durum output trimmed by 0.2Mt, to 7.5Mt (7.5Mt) after incorporating official acreage estimates. Rapeseed production was pegged at 19.1Mt (19.8Mt). It notes that with increased precipitation replenishing soil moisture across much of Europe, crop outlooks are generally seen as positive. 

According to India’s Solvent Extractors’ Association 2024-25 rapeseed production may reach a high of 12.0Mt (11.5Mt previous year), reflecting an increase in the area planted to 10.0m ha (+5pc), and generally favourable conditions to date, with recent surveys showing fields are in good condition. However, there are some concerns about the potential impact of a recent rise in temperatures, which could accelerate maturation and reduce the size of seeds. 

Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120kt of feed barley, after they reportedly made no purchase in yesterday’s tender for the same amount. It also issued a new tender for 120kt of milling wheat after only buying 50kt in the previous tender.

Australia

A firmer tone was seen through east coast markets yesterday as we saw a sharp bounce offshore. Most of the bounce was eaten by basis but none the less we saw a A$4/t flat price gain through the day on cereals. Canola was steady as it lacked any real impact from offshore moves. Sorghum harvest continues to ramp up, albeit slowly, expect to see the of tonnes come off in the next 2 weeks. ASX wheat closed up $2.30/t at $342/t. 

WA wheat bids failed to reflect any of the offshore US futures strength, with grower bids for the current season APW1 unchanged at $380/t FIS Kwinana. The market is more focused on Russian fob wheat values that continue to set the tone on prices for now into our key destinations in Asia. Lower grades continue to be sort after in the West with trades going through via Clear at $400/t and $390/t for ASW1 and ASW9 respectively. On canola the main interest was Esperance zone, with CAN buyers in the $675-680/t FIS price range. 

Line ups data this week shows 3.37Mt of total grain on the stem for Feb, including wheat at 2.31Mt, barley at 492kt, canola at 550kt and sorghum at 23kt. This week we saw port congestion easing at Geraldton (17 to 15 days), Kwinana (9 to 8 days) and Port Giles (2 to 1). While Albany went from 8 to 14 days and Esperance from 2 to 4. There are currently 12 vessels anchored and 8 loading at Australian grain ports.

 

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