Markets

Daily Market Wire 22 January 2021

Lachstock Consulting, January 22, 2021

Wheat eased. New crop canola rallied hard. The US dollar index eased to 90.1

  • Chicago wheat March contract down US7 cents per bushel to 660.75c;
  • Kansas wheat March contract down 1.25c/bu to 635.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat March contract down 2.25c/bu to 635.25c;
  • MATIF wheat March contract down €2.25/t to €231.75/t;
  • Corn March contract up 2.25c/bu to 524.25c;
  • Soybeans March contract up 0.75c/bu to 1370.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola March contract up C$8.60/t to $657;
  • MATIF rapeseed February contract up €6.25/t to €433.75;
  • Brent crude March up US$0.02 per barrel to $56.10;
  • Dow Jones index down 12 points to  31,176 points;
  • AUD firmer at $0.777;
  • CAD firmer at $1.264;
  • EUR firmer at $1.217

International

Democrats in the US House are pushing for a rapid passing of the new stimulus bill, suggesting that they could vote by 1Feb.  They can ramrod through anything they desire in the House, but it will be slightly more difficult in the Senate – with the 50/50 split and filibuster rules forcing them to look for some compromise.

Flash export sales last night confirmed that a large chunk of US export sales hit the books during the recent sell-off. Sales included 136,000t of old crop beans to China, and 163,000t to Mexico, 138,000t new crop wheat to Nigeria and 336,000t of old crop corn to unknown, destination most believe is China.

Regular export sales will be out tonight, delayed reporting on account of Monday’s holiday.

Algeria (OAIC) bought up to 390,000t non-durum wheat at tender.

Saudi Arabia’s SAGO is also back again, for LH Mar/FH April barley shipments.  With EU and Black Sea origin markets extremely firm it looks set to price basis Aussie replacement, but the key question will be timing/logistics around slot availability.

Rumours are running around yet again about yet another potential increase to the Russian export tax as domestic prices have not moved substantially down so far. Food inflation has not yet abated.  No certainty yet but just enough possibility to keep the market on its toes.

As market prices have come off, there’s evolving discussion about US planting intentions for upcoming corn and soybean crops. One group estimated the split at 94 million corn / 90 million beans last night, but others are putting much larger shifts to beans.  There will be more discussion ahead of the USDA outlook forum, which will be virtual this year, held on 18 and 19 February.

Brazilian soybean estimates are also getting refined as harvest, slowly, ticks along. More private figures are starting to trend towards the 133-135 million tonnes range, still with plenty of outliers.

Black Sea weather maps are holding onto a wave of warm temperatures across next week/weekend, with some concerns about snow cover loss if we see a cold snap emerging in February.

Australia

Local markets remained firm with SA wheat in particular bringing a strong showing yesterday. ASW wheat price pushed over $320/t on Adelaide track markets.

Barley was firmer by another $3-5/t across the country, and with the SAGO tender out there’s more hope going round for further support given the likelihood that much of that will be Aussie origin.

That BOM forecast for next week is really filling in for SA and VIC – latest runs a widespread 25+ mm for cropping area.

Lachstock offices will be closed next Tuesday for Australia Day, but US markets will be open for full trading.  Happy Australia Day from all of us here.
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