Markets

Daily Market Wire 25 July 2022

Lachstock Consulting, July 25, 2022

French wheat collapsed 7pc on Friday. US wheat fell 4-6pc, corn 2pc and soybean meal 1pc.  The other oilseeds markets firmed at least 1pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US44.25 cents per bushel to 777.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 40.25c/bu to 827.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 38.5c/bu to 884.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €22.75/t to €312.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down $1.75/t to $353.50/t;
  • Corn September contract down 9.25c/bu to 564.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 14.25c/bu to 1315.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$9.10/t to $802.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €7.50/t to €637.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down A$7/t to $415/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.690.

International

Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu and Ukrainian infrastructure minister Oleksandr Kubrakov on Friday each signed separate but identical agreements with UN and Turkish officials on reopening Black Sea export routes from three key Ukrainian ports – Odesa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny.

Russia subsequently attacked the port of Odesa on Saturday morning, saying it targeted a Ukrainian military vessel therefore not breaking the agreement.

According to the agreement Ukrainian pilots will guide the ships along safe channels in its territorial waters, with a minesweeper vessel on hand as needed but no military escort. A coalition of Turkish, Ukrainian and UN staff will monitor the loading of grain into vessels in Ukrainian ports before navigating a pre-planned route through the Black Sea. The vessels will then cross the Black Sea towards Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait while being closely monitored by a joint coordination centre in Istanbul, containing representatives from the UN, Ukraine, Russia and Turkey.

Russia has agreed not to target vessels involved in grain shipment though not a lot of trust exists there. Turkey will inspect the ships to allay any smuggling concerns. A parallel agreement will facilitate Russian grain and fertilizer exports. The agreements are in force for 120 days and are renewable.

FranceAgriMer reported 84pc of the soft wheat crop had been harvested by July 18, up from 50pc last week and 12pc this time last year. Soft wheat condition rating was 63pc good or excellent, down from 64pc the previous week. French corn rated 75pc good or excellent condition by July 18 against 83pc the previous week and 90pc last year.  Dry and warm weather is expected to last at least two more weeks in the main growing regions in France.

Canada’s Agriculture and Agri-Food latest crop report raised 2022/23 all-wheat production forecast by 0.6Mt, to 33.7Mt (21.7Mt previous year). The canola production forecast was increased by 0.4Mt, to 18.4Mt (12.6Mt previous year) and the barley production outlook was lowered by 0.2Mt, to 9.1Mt (6.9Mt last year).

Australia

Friday’s local values eased liquidity slowed. Trade bids and offers widened and growers remain “sticky” on the balance of their current crop sales programs.

Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) members are not ruling out possible strike action at the GrainCorp Newcastle Port terminal as reports emerge that the company is preparing a scab workforce to takeover in the event of a stoppage. Negotiations remain at a stalemate between both parties who are in talks about the pay and conditions for the about 60 staff at the site.

It was a relatively dry weekend for Qld, NSW and SA. WA and central Vic picked up the highest rainfall totals of 5-25mm.

 

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