Oilseeds continued to firm. Wheat and corn weakened by 1pc or less. US dollar weakened.
- Chicago wheat September contract down US0.75c/bu to 665c;
- Kansas wheat September contract down 6.5c/bu to 609.25c;
- Minneapolis wheat September contract up 1.25c/bu to 767.5c;
- MATIF wheat September contract down €1/t to €207.25/t;
- Corn September contract down 6.25c/bu to 571.25c;
- Soybeans September contract up 8.5c/bu to 1325.75c;
- Winnipeg canola November contract up C$6.20/t to $700.20;
- MATIF rapeseed August contract up €2/t to €490.25/t;
- US dollar index down 0.4 to 91.9;
- AUD firmer at US$0.753;
- CAD firmer at $1.238;
- EUR firmer at $1.191;
- ASX wheat July contract down A$1.90 to $295/t;
- ASX wheat January 2022 up $0.10/t to $302/t.
Choppy markets continued to see large swings on the grain markets last night, with beans back up late session to close +8.5¢ and corn -6 1/4¢ (Matif rapeseed +€2, Winnipeg canola +$6.2). Wheat saw Minny holding up better through the early session but pulled down later in the session by winter wheat sales pressure to end up 1 1/4¢, KC -6 1/2¢, Chicago -3/4¢, and Matif -1€ on the earlier close. Crude oil has continued to firm with WTI up nearly two bucks to $73.7 WTI / $74.9 Brent as Iranian talks stagnate, and the DOW jumped 587 points.
A reminder that options expiry is this Friday – one to watch given the recent large moves and outstanding positions.
Rains across the US corn belt continues to grab attention. Better results are being reported as storms move into the main “I” states. Markets in general are treating the moisture as very beneficial, after earlier dryness, despite a few localized extreme weather events.
The rest of this week is still set to bring 2-3″ for the majority of the eastern Corn Belt, with some spots of 3-4″-plus along the Ohio river. Not much talk of SRW quality yet, but worries would be at the back of the mind for some with this moisture with harvest only just starting there.
Post close we saw regular crop conditions reports. Markets zeroed in on the collapse in spring wheat conditions, the good-to-excellent ratings down 10pc as North Dakota crops continue to wilt. Corn condition was off 3pc to 65pc G/E, beans off 2pc to 60pc G/E. Harvest progress in winter wheat was 17pc, behind average but reflecting a 13pc harvest progress increase compared with last week as they rip through Kansas.
Spring wheat crop concerns are coming back into discussion after the negative crop conditions report. Markets are beginning to remember the previous week of weather was not constructive, despite rains for the corn belt. The latest extended run forecasts have added a little moisture for some of the drier parts of North Dakota, where it may be too late to add substantial bushels, but most of the rest of the US and Canadian spring wheat areas remain dry on the outlooks.
The USDA confirmed prior rumours of Chinese bean buying late last week, flash sales reporting 336,000t new crop beans sold to China and another 120,000t sold to unknown destination, likely China.
The EU’s MARS crop monitoring report came in with production increases of 1.6pc to wheat and barley crop estimates, relative to their prior update, making note of the recent weather supporting yield.
Rains across WA pushing over an inch for many so far into the weekend – and forecast to continue through today for the inland wheat belt
Latest weather map runs are sending most of the system south of the coast in SA, though chances of 15-20mm across the EP – and a likely 20+ mm for central NSW off the storm moving through there today.
The weaker AUD continuing to support ag markets, trading under 75¢ – and now with a stronger board behind today’s open.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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