Markets surged on the bigger-than-expected drop in US crop conditions, with corn, soybeans and spring wheat all in dire need of rainfall, and without anything meaningful on the forecast.

Reuters is reporting that Indian wheat production could be 10 percent lower than official government estimates, so closer to 101-103 million tonnes (Mt) rather than 113Mt, based on information from the Roller Flour Millers Federation.

Russia’s TASS news agency is reporting that the UN has confirmed it is unable to address some of Russia’s grievances related to the Black Sea deal, in particular the resumption of piped Russian ammonia exports, the reconnection of its agricultural bank to the SWIFT payment system, or ensuring supplies of spare parts for agricultural machinery. According to the Deputy Foreign Minister, the UN will decide whether the memorandum facilitating exports of local products will remain in effect in the event of the ending of the part of the deal connected with supplies of Ukrainian grain

The Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development crop report, for the week ending June 20 notes that sporadic showers across the province made little contribution to crop-moisture maintenance, with only some parts of the north-west receiving significant rains. Especially dry conditions are noted in the central, Interlake and north-west regions. Crops have shown rapid development and remain in generally good condition, except for later-planted fields.

Germany’s farm co-operative group DRV has noted that cropping weather has changed completely over the past month, with drought stress an increasing concern, especially in the five eastern federal states. The forecast for all-wheat production for 2023-24 is down 400,000t from last month to 21.9Mt (22.5Mt 2022-23). Total barley production has been trimmed by 100,000t to 10.8Mt (11.2Mt), while forecast rapeseed production has been cut by 200,000t to 4.1Mt (4.3Mt).

ANEC Brazil has revised down its June soybean export forecast by 500,000t to 14.3Mt, soymeal by 100,000t, to 2.4Mt and maize trimmed by 100,000t to 1.5Mt.

Australia

Local markets were firmer across the boards yesterday on wheat and barley. Jan 24 ASX East Coast wheat contract was a mixed bag, trading up to $398/mt then down to $395/mt by the end of the day with some old crop to new crop rolls being placed. Canola bids pulled back slightly over the day

Victoria has once again picked up the highest rainfall totals for the week ending June 21 with a widespread 10-25mm, while parts of the east have picked up 25-50mm. Most cropping regions of South Australia picked up 5-25mm, while Western Australia and southern New South Wales have totals of 1-10mm. Central and northern NSW and Queensland have been dry. It is wet in SA and western Vic today, with the rainfall hopefully extending through NSW tonight and tomorrow.