Markets

Daily Market Wire 22 March 2021

Lachstock Consulting, March 22, 2021

Wheat continued to slide slightly through Friday’s session, though row crops picked up a bid – some justifying it as support from the Chinese corn flashes, while others attributing it back to another shift in the technicals again.  Crude was up a buck fifty to $61.4 WTI / $64.5 Brent and the DOW closed down 234 at 32.6k.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down US3.5c/bu to 627c;
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 1.5c/bu to 585.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract up 1.5c/bu to 627c;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €0.75/t to €219.75;
  • Corn May contract up 11.25c/bu to 557.75c;
  • Soybeans May contract up 24c/bu to 1416.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up C$22.10/t to $776.20;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €10/t to €515;
  • US dollar index up 0.1 to 91.7;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.772;
  • CAD firmer at $1.212;
  • EUR weaker at $1.188;
  • ASX wheat May contract down $3/t to A$280;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $4/t to $294.

International

Argentina’s crush worker strike will remain on hold until after meetings today with management. It is yet to be seen whether workers will support further strike action if today’s meetings do not favour the unions.

The week ended with an old crop corn sales flash 800,000t to China, the fourth for the week.

Meetings between the US and China in Alaska are reported to have been “tense,” prompting new concerns about the potential for future conflict, and there’s possible flow through into agricultural commodities.

It’s a little over a week until US acreage reporting. Fertilizer demand reportedly is picking up rapidly across much of the central corn belt as farmers race to get fields ready.  There are many varying ideas in the market on acreage and we’re unlikely to see any consensus there until the USDA publishes its figures. The potential for volatility both into and out of the report is significant.  USDA figures will be based on survey data collected late Feb/early March and won’t be reflecting any changes in intentions in more recent days.

France’s Ag Ministry reports 87 per cent of wheat crops are rated good-to-excellent, down 1pc from week prior but still a big improvement on last year. Note crop condition predictions in France do not have the same historical consistency/reliability as the more followed US ones do.

Following the recent squeeze in Winnipeg canola futures, the USDA attaché in Canada estimated ending stocks down to 700,000t, from its estimate of 3.1 million tonnes last year (the Lachstock estimate was 2.1Mt). The change was attributed to not only a much higher crush than the official USDA estimates, but also to higher exports, both factors in new low ending stocks estimate.

Australia

Australia ended a quiet week, markets remaining in execution/logistics mode.  ASX east coast May 2021 wheat futures settled down A$3/t to $280/t.

Weekend rain caused flooding for some and was generally heavier than forecast. Further falls of 50mm or greater, early this week, should continue over much of central and northern NSW.

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