Wheat futures gained 3-5pc. Coarse grains and oilseeds gained by smaller margins.
- Chicago wheat May contract up US55.5cents per bushel to 1119.25c/bu;
- Kansas wheat May contract up 42.75c/bu to 1113.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat May up 28.5c/bu to 1088.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat May contract up €15/t to €376.75/t;
- Black Sea wheat July contract up $14.50/t to $359.25/t;
- Corn May contract up 14.5c/bu to 756.25c/bu;
- Soybeans May contract up 23c/bu to 1691c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$7.90 /t to $940.70/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €10.75/t to €744/t;
- ASX July 2022 wheat contract unchanged at $411/t;
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract unchanged at $403/t;
- AUD dollar weaker at US$0.740;
- Brent crude up 3pc.
The realisation that there is no end in sight in the Black Sea enticed buyers back into the Ag pits.
On Friday, Zelenskiy aide and negotiation team member Mykhailo Podolyak told Bloomberg TV that while there had been some progress in peace talks, a resolution could take weeks, with territorial concessions off the table.
Ukraine has also said repeatedly that security guarantees would need to come from nations including Germany and the US, not Russia.
Wheat is still bleeding out of Russia, some suggesting 2.2 million tonnes (Mt) will find its way onto a boat. The idea that there hasn’t been significant Ukrainian infrastructure damage seems hopeful at best.
The US belt is in the process of receiving good, timely rainfall with more on the way. Same global weather hot spots we have been looking at – too wet to harvest in Brazil and Argy, too dry in southern EU and pockets of concerns in the Black Sea re dryness.
There is still routine tender business happening. Non-traditional exporters such as India are trying to make hay; the function of price is to create a supply response and/or erode demand. One lesson COVID has taught us is wheat demand is a hard one to crack. Supply needs to do the heavy lifting and every acre needs to be farmed. The fact this coincides with a major reprice in input costs make the outcome hard to predict. Additionally, transportation costs will also shape value with Mississippi barge freight hitting 8-year highs
Iraq received the lowest offer from Australia at $528/t C&F.
Monday’s local markets began relatively unchanged across the board, but later in the day Vic ASW1 buying interest emerged and later traded on Clear Grain Exchange at a $370/t track level. Other liquidity trading on the online platform was lupins and oats in WA.
Recent tenders in the export market included The Philippines tendering for 270,000t feed wheat, May-Oct Shipment.
An Iraq wheat tender received the lowest offer from Australia at $528/t C&F.
Weather patterns on the 8-day BOM continue to hold for WA and the Northern NSW and SQ region. While moisture through SA, VIC and SNSW has been pulled out.