Daily Market Wire 22 March 2023

Lachstock Consulting, March 22, 2023

Markets eased.

  • Chicago wheat May 2023 contract down US17.5 cents per bushel to 683.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May 2023 contract down 9.5c/bu to 820.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May 2023  down 5.75c/bu to 845.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2023 down €4.50/t to €253.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat May 2023 down US$0.50/t to $289.75/t;
  • Corn May 2023 contract down 3c/bu to 630c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2023 contract down 19c/bu to 1467c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract down C$9.20/t to $729.40/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract down €12.75/t to €441/t;
  • ASX May 2023 wheat contract down A$5/t to $391/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract down A$5/t to $396.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$339.20/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 16 points to US$0.6719


Russia’s Foreign Ministry has released a statement saying that Russia would only agree to extend the Black Sea agreement beyond 18 May (60 days) if certain conditions be met, notably progress on the normalisation of food and fertiliser exports, including the removal of economic sanctions on certain entities, including Russian agricultural companies and banks (access to SWIFT) associated with agricultural activities. Should the Black Sea Grain Initiative not be extended beyond May 18, then Russia could consider supplying grains to African countries, free of cost, on humanitarian grounds.

While in Moscow, Xi Jinping has made a range of pledges to expand China’s economic partnership with Russia, outlining an economic order that could help both China and Russia insulate themselves from Western sanctions. Putin and Xi signed 14 agreements of wide-ranging collaboration, including media enterprises and scientific research and promised to bring more Russian oil to China and more Chinese companies to Russia. At the same time Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made a surprise visit to Ukraine.

Brazil’s CONAB reports that as at 18 Mar, 2022-23 first (full-season) maize harvesting is 35pc complete (26pc previous week, 42pc previous year). Second (safrinha) maize crop plantings are 85pc complete (73pc previous week, 95pc previous year). Fieldwork in Mato Grosso was close to completion amid favourable weather, with dry conditions in Parana also allowing for progress. Soybean harvest was 63pc complete (53pc previous week, 71pc previous year), with reports of good quality in Mato Grosso. There was reduced rainfall in Parana, which proved beneficial to fieldwork, but there are reports of crop damage due to humidity. 

Brazil’s Agroconsult is forecasting soybean exports at a record 96Mt and corn exports above 50Mt this season, citing a favourable outlook for total corn production in the country despite an expected fall in plantings in some states.

According to Ukraine’s Ag Ministry 2023-24 total grains production seen at 44.3Mt down from 53.1Mt last year, including wheat production at 16.6Mt (20.5Mt previous year), corn production at 21.7Mt (25.6Mt) and barley at 4.8Mt. In contrast to smaller grain harvests, 2023-24 oilseeds production is forecast to increase to 19.2Mt, up from the 18.2Mt produced last year, reflecting larger plantings, with sunflowerseed output pegged at 11.5Mt (11.1Mt), rapeseed at 3.8Mt (3.7Mt) and soybeans at 3.9Mt (3.4Mt).  

Ukraine’s grain exports are at 35.8Mt as of March 21, down from 44.8Mt at the same time last year. Cumulative corn exports are at 21Mt, which are up 2pc, 12.3Mt of wheat, down 34pc and 2.2Mt of barley, down 61pc. 

A USDA GAIN report has forecast China’s 2023-24 soybean imports to reach 97Mt, 1 million tonnes higher than the current USDA estimate for 2022-23

US Private exporters reported sales of another 136,000t of corn for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year


Local markets markets continued to feel heavy and very slow with prices on wheat barley and canola all peeling off over the day. A favourable rainfall forecast for the next 8-15 days for a large part of eastern Australia and some parts of Western Australia saw the market soften on what could be a decent early break.

The feedgrain market in Queensland remained well supported and SA values held some ground. Pulse markets also continue to hold up with lentils in SA trading around $820/t port price and high $700s local depot Victoria.


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