Markets

Daily Market Wire 22 November 2022

Lachstock Consulting, November 22, 2022

US grain prices eased in fractions and soybeans gained. Macros were little changed.

  • Chicago wheat March 2023 contract down US3.5 cents per bushel to 818.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat March 2023 contract down 1c/bu at 922.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat March 2023 contract down 5c/bu to 953.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2023 contract up €0.75/t to  €321.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract down US$0.25 to $321.75/t;
  • Corn March 2023 contract down 6.5c/bu to 663.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract up 8.5c/bu to 1441.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was down C$9.40/t at $837.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €7.25/t to €603/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $A10/t to $440/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$327.50/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.660.

International

China has locked down the largest district in Guangzhou Province while schools across Beijing have moved to online classes as authorities battle surging COVID-19 cases. Guangzhou, a southern metropolis that is home to almost 19 million people, announced a five-day lock down yesterday for the most populous district of Baiyun, and suspended dining-in services and shut nightclubs and theatres in the main business district.
 Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, IKAR, revised up its 2022-23 wheat export forecast from 42Mt to 44Mt.

According to Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange, insufficient moisture and the impact of a third consecutive La Niña, notably in terms of slow planting progress to date, the early crop 2022-23 soybean yield expectation has been revised down to 3.5t/ha, compared to an average of 4.0-5.0t/ha in core growing areas. 

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) revised up its forecast for all wheat exports by 200,000t, to 23.5Mt (15.1Mt previous year).

Ukraine’s Ag. Ministry reports that owing to the challenges related to the ongoing Black Sea conflict, including limited access to financing, high fuel prices and logistical difficulties, 2023-24 total winter crop acreage could fall by 20pc-30pc with total production of grains and oilseeds projected at 65Mt-67Mt. 

As at 18 Nov, Ukraine’s cumulative 2022-23 (Jul/Jun) grain exports totalled 15.9Mt (23.2Mt same period year ago), including wheat at 6.1Mt (13.7Mt), barley at 1.3Mt (4.9Mt) and maize at 8.4Mt (4.3Mt).
 Chinese customs data show October wheat imports at 1.2Mt, with Jan-Oct cumulative total at 7.9Mt (-3pc y/y), barley at 340,000t, cumulative 4.8Mt (-52pc), maize at 550,000t, cumulative 19.0Mt (-28pc) and sorghum at 610,000t, cumulative 9.5Mt (+17pc). 

Jordan’s state grains buyer seeks 120,000t feed barley from optional origins, for Mar/Apr shipment. 

Tunisia’s state grains agency purchased 75,000t feed barley at $340-$345/t C&F, for Dec/Jan shipment. 

Australia

Local markets remained subdued yesterday with new crop markets thin on wheat, barley and canola. Bulk handlers have now started opening up segregations for canola with mould in eastern Australia to cater for weather damage. The ASX January 2023 eastern wheat contract settled A$10/t lower at $440/t. 

Graincorp’s second harvest update for this season reports that receivals are finally gathering pace in recent days amid fine weather with 1.7Mt being delivered to date. The update noted that CQ growers were enjoying the biggest yields they have seen in more than a decade. Good progress was being made in Goondiwindi and Western Downs clusters last week with improved weather. Northern New South Wales sites across the Moree, Burren Junction and Narrabri regions have ramped up after favourable weather last week. Southern NSW sites are receiving predominantly canola so far, however, on-farm harvest activity has been delayed by rain events impeding machinery access into paddocks. 

Graincorp noted that a wide range of quality and grades are being received across the network, including good quantities of milling wheat.

 

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