Markets

Daily Market Wire 22 November 2023

Lachstock Consulting, November 22, 2023

Markets firmed. 

  • Chicago December wheat up US11.5c/bu to 555c/bu;
  • Kansas December wheat up 5.25c/bu to 615.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec wheat up 10.25c/bu to 717.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec up €1.25/t to €225.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August;
  • Corn December up 0.5c/bu to 470c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 9.75c/bu to 1404.75c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$5.10/t to C$729.90/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €8.25/t to €445.75/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat down A$2/t to $383/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley up A$2/t to $337.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 1 point to  US$0.6556.

International

Brazil-based consultancy AgRural reported at 16 Nov Brazilian 2023-24 soybean planting was 68pc complete (80pc previous year), the slowest pace since 2019-20 amid excessive rainfall in southern regions, and lack of sufficient moisture in northern and northeastern areas. Due to irregular and high temperatures adversely affecting fieldwork, the need for replanting has increased in Mato Grosso, with some growers reportedly abandoning fields and choosing to plant second (safrinha) maize in early 2024. First (full-season) maize crop sowings in the centre-south region were 80pc complete (82pc).

Crop consultant Michael Cordonnier has kept his Brazilian soybean crop estimate unchanged at 158Mt with a neutral to lower bias. He also kept his Brazilian corn crop estimate at 121Mt with a lower bias, noting that safrinha corn acreage will decline, but by how much is still in question. Some producers are estimating they may reduce their safrinha corn acreage by 25pc to 50pc. Dr Cordonnier left his Argentine crop estimates at 50Mt for soybeans and 52Mt for corn, noting a slightly higher bias for soybeans though a moderately lower bias for corn. 

The cotton producers’ group of Mato Grosso (AMPA) estimated cotton area could increase by 8pc this year due to extremely dry conditions, prompting growers to switch from soybean to cotton. 

The EU vegetable oil and protein meal industry association Fediol recent statistics show that the EU crushed 3Mt of oilseeds in October, including 771kt soybeans (730kt previous year), 589kt sunflower seeds (415kt), and 1.7Mt rapeseed (1.6Mt previous year). Cumulative Jan-Oct crush is 32Mt (30.4Mt previous year), including 11.2Mt soybeans (11.9Mt), 4.9Mt sunflower seeds (4.1Mt), and 15.9Mt rapeseed (14.5Mt).

Ukraine-based agribusiness consultancy APK-Inform increased its 2023-24 Ukraine grain production forecast by 1.3Mt to 54.7Mt, reflecting better yields, with corn up 1.2Mt to 26Mt. The canola production estimate increased 4.4Mt with exports forecast at 3.57Mt (-0.12Mt from previous). 

Tunisia’s OAIC has issued an international tender (22 Nov) to purchase 100kt of soft milling wheat and 75kt of feed barley – optional origin. The wheat is sought in four 25kt consignments and the barley in three 25kt consignments.

Australia

There was a softer tone across local markets on Tuesday, as Vic harvest pace ramps up, with a big drive to get the crop off before the impending rain event. With more tonnes available to sell, values felt the weight yesterday and the trade were happy to sit back and own at the bids and not stick their neck out. ASX Jan 24 wheat closed down A$2/t at $383/t.

Viterra received 928kt for the week ending 19 November taking total receivals to 3.42Mt. Its harvest update noted that the Central region took most deliveries for the week. Viterra had finished loading vessels at Outer Harbor and Thevenard this week, the first vessels for the season for both ports. The Outer Harbor vessel was the second new season barley shipment to China.

 

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