US wheat markets eased greater than 2 percent, oilseeds less than 2pc. Russian cash was quoted as flat. The Dow Jones Industrials Average eased 1pc and equities in China continued easier.
- Chicago wheat December down US13c/bu to 575.75c/bu;
- Kansas wheat December down 18.5c/bu to 710.5c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat December down 16c/bu to 767.5c/bu;
- MATIF wheat December down €2.25/t to €236.25/t;
- Black Sea wheat has not quoted since 11 August;
- Corn December down 7c/bu to 475.25c/bu;
- Soybeans May 2024 down 23.5c/bu to 1330c/bu;
- Winnipeg November canola down C$10.80/t to $725.30/t;
- Winnipeg May 2024 canola down C$9.60/t to $747.90/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2023 down €9.50/t to €439.50/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May 2024 down €3.50/t to €466.75/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat down A$3/t to $424/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley unchanged at A$370/t;
- AUD dollar eased 32 points to US$0.6416.
The US Federal Reserve board left US rates unchanged and almost dislocated their metaphorical shoulders patting themselves on the back, announcing they have high hopes of a soft landing. The 2pc inflation target remains in sight although they did signal the likelihood of one more rate increase by the end of calendar 2023.
It was like Groundhog Day in futures markets; wheat needed little reason to hit the sell button. The fundamentals traders were left scratching their collective noggins, believing that removing risk premium while simultaneously cutting major exporters production and placing more reliance on Russia was somewhat confusing. But Russia is still pushing wheat out at an enormous clip, forcing other origins to meet the market. GASC bought US$255/t FOB from Romania (ie Ukraine, probably, maybe) so, for global consumers, there simply isn’t any panic.
More and more noise is being made offshore about Aussie production. Seems the Chicago broker community is moving to a 22-23 million tonnes type number if you believe the rhetoric.
It is interesting that the EPA’s Science Advisory Board is asking the question about the environmental impact of corn-based ethanol versus traditional fossil fuels. Ethanol accounts for close to one third of US corn demand and turning off that tap would clearly create some tension in the US given the reliance on this demand point. Could that encourage a convoy of quad tracs to roll into Washington en masse?
A sober reminder that the Truck Industry Council of Australia had July year to date medium to heavy truck sales were up 13pc year on year. Impressive given 2022 was a record.
Australian canola basis continues to absorb most of the whippy offshore futures movements.
Frost effects from two weeks ago are starting to show in very localized areas in SNSW
A welcome return to some cooler weather has helped keep prospects alive in most areas. With no significant falls on the short-term forecast growers seem to be in the wait and see phase rather than taking the leap with the risk of over committing.