Daily market wire 23 Aug 2016

Lachstock Consulting August 23, 2016


After several higher closes, wheat had it lowest close in two weeks last night.

Tomorrow’s Statscan report has the potential (if over 31mmt) to push CBOT to new lows and test the resolve of people trying to call a bottom on this wheat market.

Corn’s upcoming behavior is somewhat dependent on US crop tours and will undoubtedly have an impact on short term wheat numbers.

EU futures, in a heavy volume performance of 38,881 contracts, the largest figure since July 13th, suffered significant losses in a wide trading range.

EU soft wheat yields have been cut down to 5.865t/ha from July’s estimate of 6.10t/ha.

The drama filled French wheat harvest edges closer to a wrap with yields estimated at 6.56t/ha which is 11 percent down on its five year average.

Recent chatter around the removal of the Russian wheat export tax has also been a determining factor in the recent market slide.

CBOT down -11.7c to 415.2c, Kansas wheat down -5c to 413.6c, corn down -1c to 333.2c, soybeans up 8.2c to 1035.2c, Winnipeg canola up 1.3$C to 470.5$C, and Matif canola unchanged at 378€.

The Dow Jones down -23.15 to 18,529.42, Crude Oil down -0.03c to 47.38c, AUD at 0.76322c, CAD up to 1.29394c, (AUDCAD 0.98753) and the was EUR up to 1.13206c (AUDEUR 0.6740).

The US weekly crop conditions and progress report has soybeans 89% podded with crop conditions unchanged on the week.

Spring wheat harvest is now 65% complete, barley harvest 70% done and 90% of oats have been harvested.

In regards to corn, Export inspections put forward positive figures of 1,249,309mt vs expectations 1,000,000 – 1,200,000.

The US, to date, has exported 15 Mil Bu more than this time last year after what can only be described as a thumping season.

Domestically, field days around the country reporting bouyant confidence levels particularly from the livestock sector, whilst the cropping sector is showing signs of concern over the outlook for grain prices not only this year, but potentially into 2017/2018.

Enquiries for silos, bags, and bunker tarps have exploded as growers around the country envisage storing feed grain if it remains at or below the cost of production.

Growing conditions remain excellent with a mixture of well-timed rain and late afternoon sunshine.

WA is still staring down the barrel of record yields as NSW and QLD are preparing for a week of significant rainfall.

Markets continue to soften as growers are becoming more and more concerned with finding a home for their remaining old crop to make room for the upcoming harvest.


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