Soybeans and canola ease 2 percent. Corn and wheat markets ease more than 1pc. Currency dip favours Australian exports.
- Chicago December 2024 down US8.5 cents per bushel to US535.5c/bu;
- Kansas Dec 2024 wheat down 6.75c/bu to 545c/bu;
- Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 13c/bu to 584c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €2.25c/bu to €209.50/t;
- Corn Dec 2024 down 4.75c/bu to 393.5c/bu;
- Soybeans Nov 2024 down 20c/bu to 961.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 down C$12.10/t to $565.50/t;
- MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 down €7.50/t to €449.75/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 wheat down A$3.50/t to $309.50/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 barley down A$1/t to $290/t;
- AUD dollar down 39 points to US$0.6705.
International
Wheat fell again, making new contract lows in all three pits. Some are attributing the pressure to the Canadian rail strike; given the lack of access to the export market, the HRS futures contract is the best alternative to make a sale. Ultimately, should this continue, this would push export demand back to the US and other origins. Maybe this is kicking off already, with US export sales posting 492,700t, well over the 320,000t needed to hit the USDA target.
The market did not bat an eyelid when a Russian cargo ship full of fuel was hit by the Ukrainians. It’s all about demand, or lack thereof. Turkiye putting up the shutters has done nothing to entice global buyers to get a wriggle on. Until another buyer rocks up, or Egypt wins powerball, the market is at the mercy of demand, and the pressure caused by the Northern Hemisphere restocking its bins.
India has been the demand rumour for a long time; it is interesting to note that, since 2015, Indian domestic wheat prices have been this elevated twice. In relative USD/t terms, Indian prices are near record premiums to Australian ASX values.
There is finally some sign of life in the US soybean-export program, with China having a busy week. Some interesting similarities between beans and wheat; beans have been plumbing new lows on heavy production and a distinct lack of demand. Has sub USD$10/bu finally sparked buying?
China has been the bellwether for global ag commodity demand, and its challenging economic conditions have been a wet blanket on values.
Australia
In Western Australia, some interest from China on barley has spurred the current-crop market. A real pick-up in activity was noted via Clear Grain Exchange yesterday, with feed barley in the Albany and Kwinana port zones going through at A$310/ free in store, and then improving throughout the afternoon with trades of up to $320/t.
New-crop canola improved slightly to $760/t, minus $60 for GM, and new-crop wheat was marginally softer at $355/t, while barley remained steady at $315/t.
Temperatures in the mid to high 20s are forecast throughout South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales this weekend, not a threat to production, but a reminder that we are moving through the calendar.
Chickpeas in the north are still the belle of the ball, with bids circa $1100/t yesterday, despite the higher AUD.
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