Wheat opened firmer and broke late; corn, beans and canola were mixed.

• Chicago wheat March contract down 3.75 cents per bushel to 577.75c;
• Kansas wheat March contract down 7.5 cents to 492.5c;
• Minneapolis wheat March contract down 2.25c/bu to 555.5c;
• MATIF wheat March contract down €2.5 to €195.75/t;
• Corn March contract up 1.25c to 388.75c;
• Soybeans March contract down 2.25c to 913.75c;
• Winnipeg canola March contract up C$1.10/t to $477.90/t;
• MATIF rapeseed February contract down €0.25/t to €409.75/t;
• Brent crude March contract down $1.90c per barrel to $62.70 per barrel;
• Dow Jones index down 10 points to 29,186;
• AUD weaker at $0.6840;
• CAD weaker at $1.315;
• EUR stronger at $1.109.

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Chicago wheat pushed up early in the session in the US, only to break back mid-session after Matif closed down sharply on a technical reversal.  Chicago ended off 3 3/4¢ to 577 3/4¢, KC -7.5¢ to 492.5¢, Minny – 6 3/4¢ to 555.5¢, and Matif was off 2.5€ to 195 3/4€.  Row crops were more muted as corn picked up a cent and a quarter to 388.75¢ while beans were off 2 1/4¢ to 913 3/4¢ (H) and canola ended up a buck ten to $477.9 (Matif down a quarter euro to 409 3/4€).  Crude oil broke off sharply after surprisngly large US inventory figures, with WTI off $1.6 to $56.75 (down to $56 overnight) and Brent down nearly $2 to $62.7/barrel, while the DOW was almost unchanged (down 10 points).  The AUD’s in the 68.4¢ range, the CAD at $1.315, and the EUR at $1.109.

Algerian (OAIC) tender results were reported to be in the $245/t CNF range and the successful origin appears to be mostly French at those prices, and out of range for HRW.  Rail strikes remain in France, though, and there’s no apparent end in sight.  Presumably the execution risk has been priced in appropriately for the Algerian business, but until the strike is resolved logistics will remain a concern.

Egypt’s buying agency, GASC, is reported to be looking at adding Indian wheat to the import options.  Although it’s excited a few pundits, it’s been almost a decade now since India exported any significant quantity of wheat and unless the situation changes domestically there that looks unlikely to change.

Chinese/US politics are still out there in the background.  Comments out of a US soy delegation to China did nothing to spur optimism though, with delegates there reporting that Chinese soy buyers were apparently under no pressure by the govt to buy US beans.  This should be no surprise to those who’ve been following the story, but does serve to remind that there’s no real indication as to how they will fulfill promises made a few weeks ago.

In the meantime, Brazilian soybean harvest continues to roll with more reports of surprisingly good yields coming through.

Australia

Australian markets have continued to firm, with southern levels pushing up almost five bucks at times yesterday on wheat, even as barley has held more steady (with demand stagnant).

We have seen some nice showers across Vic and southern SA, but markets are still more interested in the northern rain event and potential for late summer crops and fodder.

Latest model runs remain confident in widespread moisture from the Darling Downs into parts of central NSW (25+mm). Let’s hope for more consistent coverage this time compared with the last storm.

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