Friday offshore wheat gained a little, coarse grains and oilseeds eased a little. The US currency weakened. Crude oil prices gained as did the Dow Jones Industrials Average. The Australian dollar firmed.

• Chicago wheat March 2023 contract up US 7 cents per bushel to 741.5c/bu;
• Kansas wheat March 2023 contract up 16c/bu at 848c/bu;
• Minneapolis wheat March 2023 contract up 8.75c/bu to 912.75c/bu;
• MATIF wheat March 2023 contract unchanged at €284.75/t;
• Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract up US$1/t to $308.50/t;
• Corn March 2023 contract down 1c/bu to 676.25c/bu;
• Soybeans March 2023 contract down 8.25c/bu to 1506.5c/bu;
• Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract down C$13.80/t to $812.90/t;
• MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €3.75/t to €533/t;
• ASX Mar 2023 wheat contract down A$1/t to $375/t;
• ASX Mar 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$307.50/t;
• AUD dollar strengthened to US$0.696.

Rain has finally made it to the southern growing areas of Argentina with up to 2 inches reportedly falling in some areas but it will be rainfall forecast this week that may finally bring more widespread relief. Broader coverage and cooler temperatures are on the cards. According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, most of Argentina’s agricultural zone, as well as that of neighbouring Uruguay, should see “moderate to very abundant” rains of 10-75 mm.

As of 19 January, Ukraine had exported just over 18Mt of grain under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, according to the Joint Coordination Center (JCC). A total of 1,316 ships (652 inbound and 664 outbound) have been inspected by JCC. 

Russia will export 55-60Mt of grain in 2022-23 and doesn’t plan to cut its export quota, according to the Agriculture Ministry. This comes after President Putin recently had said the country must control grain exports to ensure reserves. 

China’s reopening from strict pandemic restrictions is likely to add to global inflationary pressures as the world’s largest consumer of raw materials ramps up commodity consumption, European Central Bank (ECB) president, Christine Lagarde, said. “There will be constraints, there will be more inflationary pressure coming out of that added demand in commodities and energy in particular,” Ms Lagarde told a World Economic Forum panel.

A Farm Futures survey found has found that increased US wheat plantings are expected to limit corn and soybean acreage this year as farmers seek to profit from high grain prices. Total 2023 wheat acres are estimated at 48.8 million acres (Mac), a 7pc increase from the previous season, If realised, it would be the largest wheat crop sown in the US since 2016. Winter wheat area is projected to expand 5pc to 34.9Mac, Spring wheat is seen at 13.9Mac, up 12pc from last year. The survey shows 90.5Mac of corn to be planted this spring, a rise of 2.2pc and 88.9Mac of soybeans, a 1.7pc increase.  

Philippines traders reportedly purchased around 110,000t feed wheat, from Australia in an international tender at an unspecified price for Apr-Jun shipment. 

Tunisia’s state grains buyer reportedly purchased 125,000t durum wheat from optional origins at US$489.49/t-$494.49/t c&f, Feb-Apr shipment. 

Australia

Local markets finished the week off lower on the boards in eastern Australia. Liquidity continued to come to the market. Harvest is coming to the finish line with growers in the Western Districts of Victoria finishing on wheat over the weekend. However, it still feels like we could see this long tail of harvest go on until the end of January. 

According to ABS data Australia exported just under 576,000t barley in November, with Mexico and Vietnam our largest malt barley destinations. Feed barley exports really picked up with 471,347t going out, with Saudi Arabia taking nearly half of that total.