International

The European Commission has proposed setting provisional tariffs of between 12.8pc and 36.4pc on Chinese biodiesel imports after finding it is being sold in EU markets at unfairly low prices. They are due to be imposed in mid-August, with investigations to continue until February, when definitive duties for 5 years could be set. 

According to the July edition of the European Commission’s MARS update, yield forecasts for almost all crops were revised down, but remain close to the 5-year average at EU level. The most notable downward revisions were for sunflowers, corn, and field peas, while forecasts for spring barley and durum were revised slightly upwards. In large parts of southern-central and south-eastern Europe, June and July were exceptionally hot, with several days seeing maximum temperatures above 35°C, which negatively affected summer crops around flowering. Winter and spring cereals were less affected in these regions, as they had already reached the end of the growth cycle. Water excess persisted in large parts of the Netherlands, west/south Germany, central France, and northern Italy. An exception to the overall mediocre yield outlook is spring barley with the yield forecast comfortably above the 5-year average and was further revised upward, thanks to continued favourable conditions in Spain and northern Europe. 

The Alberta Crop Report for the week ending 16 July notes high temps and limited rainfall impacted crops across the province. While conditions are still seen to be above average, crops are starting to show signs of heat stress. Forecast for continued hot weather in the next few days will likely impact crops that are in crucial reproductive stages. 

Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies IKAR cut its 2024-25 total grain production forecast by 1.5Mt to 128Mt, including wheat at 83.2Mt (92.8Mt previous year) and corn at 14Mt (17Mt). Exports were revised 0.5Mt lower, at 55Mt (74.2Mt), including wheat at 44Mt (54.3Mt), barley at 3.5Mt (8.3Mt) and corn at 3.8Mt (7Mt). 

US private exporters reported sales of 133kt of corn to Mexico during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

There was a firmer tone to cereal markets to start the week after a bounce in offshore markets at the end of last week. Victorian values firmed A$3-$5/t on current crop while new crop was slightly higher with the ASX Jan 25 contract ending the day up $3/t at $343/t despite a heavy NNSW crop on the way. Canola values were also firmer, following the offshore moves closely. Basis has been resilient which suggests that the grower is not hitting the bid side very hard. 

The current 8-day forecast is looking pretty good for WA with the Southwest, Midland, and Lower Great Southern regions expecting 50-100mm closer to the coast and 15-25mm further inland. In SA, the Western and Lower Eyre Peninsula may see 10-25mm, while YP and the Mid North will hopefully receive another 10mm. Murraylands looks set for some showers which may bring 5-10mm. Southeast SA has 10-25mm on the radar. In Victoria, the Western Districts look set to receive another 10-25mm, while the Wimmera has only 5-10mm. In NSW a band, stretching from the Murrumbidgee to the Northern region, is expected to bring isolated showers, while Qld is looking at a relatively dry week.