• Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry ambassador, said she is 99.9% certain Russia will exit the Black Sea grain deal in mid-July, as it no longer needs Ukrainian ports to export ammonia
• According to Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultancy, an estimated 15% of Chinese wheat production (equivalent to about 20mmt) is seen unfit for human consumption and can only be used for animal feed or alcohol production. Sprouted wheat is priced at around CNY2,300-CNY2,400/t ($320-$334) in northern areas, compared to CNY2,820 ($393, Zhengzhou) for quality wheat, Moreover, the damaged wheat is offered at a discount to maize, which is selling for around CNY2,700 ($376, Dalian)
• The US EPA have released Renewable Fuels Standards figures for 2023-25, increasing total biofuel blending volumes to 22.33 billion gallons by 2025, but leaving corn-based ethanol steady at 15 bln gal
• SovECon have revised down their Russian 2023-24 crop forecasts with wheat now seen at 86.8mmt, down from an earlier estimate for 88mmt, reflecting worsening spring wheat crop conditions across the main growing regions due to a rapid decline in soil moisture during May and June. Barley crop estimate was cut to 19.9mmt from 20.8mmt and corn 0.2mmt to 14.6mmt
• Refinitiv Commodities Research have revised up their 2022-23 Brazilian corn crop by 2.4mmt to 129.1mmt (113mmt previous year) reflecting good vegetation densities across the key secondary (safrinha) Central West Region, together with a favourable weather outlook through to the end of the month
• Buenos Aires Grain Exchange have cut their corn production estimate by another 2mmt to 34mmt, reflecting poor yields, especially in Cordoba province
• European Commission data shows that for the week ending 18 June, all wheat exports at 31.9mmt (+10% on previous year). Maize imports at 24.9mmt (+58%) and barley exports at 9.3mmt (-6%). Rapeseed imports are at 7.2mmt (+38%), soybean imports at 12.5mmt (-12%) and sunflower seed at 2.2mmt (+133%)

Australia

Local markets

• Local markets found a bid on old crop again yesterday and continued to gain some momentum across the broads. Milling wheat grades were the pick of the day through Port Kembla and Victorian Port Zones, and ASW1 and ASW9 continued to trade a few bucks stronger over in the West. New crop wheat markets again firmed by $3-5/mt, while Canola and Barley markets both held
• 24 hour rainfall totals across winter cropping regions were heaviest in SA and western VIC where 10-50mm was received (isolated pockets of SA picked up 50-100mm). NSW received fairly widespread 10-24mm, with pockets of northern NSW picking up 25-50mm. Southern QLD picked up less than 10mm

.