Markets

Daily Market Wire 23 March 2021

Lachstock Consulting, March 23, 2021

Nearly unchanged to mixed across the boards overnight with KC under more pressure from the recent moisture and corn saw a similar sell off as Brazilian planting starts to wrap up and markets, looking for the next piece of bullish news, failing to find it in the short term. Crude oil was up a dime to $61.6 WTI / $64.6 Brent and the DOW was up 103 points.

  • Chicago wheat May contract down US0.25c/bu to 627.25c;
  • Kansas wheat May contract down 7.25c/bu to 578.25c;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract down 1c/bu to 626c;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €1/t to €218.75;
  • Corn May contract down 8.75c/bu to 549c;
  • Soybeans May contract up 1.25c/bu to 1417.5c;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract up C$19.70/t to $795.90;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract down €2/t to €513;
  • US dollar index up 0.1 to 91.8;
  • AUD firmer at US$0.774;
  • CAD weaker at $1.252;
  • EUR firmer at $1.194;
  • ASX wheat May contract unchanged at A$280;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $0.50/t to $293.50.

International

The end of planting the safrinha corn crop in Brazil is finally approaching, Mato Grosso’s agricultural economics institute, IMEA, estimating the crop was 98pc planted in Mato Grosso state and into the mid-high 80pc elsewhere, based on private estimates.

Planting is still way behind normal though, and concerns about yield drag from the late plant remain. Rain is forecast to continue for much of Brazil.

Headline chatter was doing the rounds yesterday after Reuters wrote an article about the recent collapse in Black Sea cash wheat prices.  Prices were off again today, the commentary remaining the same; that there were fewer buyers and in the limited time between now and new crop harvest, slow demand was putting pressure on the inverse.

Regular US weekly export inspections reported 1.96 million tonnes (Mt) corn, 0.5Mt beans and 0.65Mt wheat.  The wheat was perhaps slightly stronger than expected.  There was also 70,000t of milo/sorghum to China.

Railroad operator Canada Pacific has agreed to buy out rival Kansas City Southern, adding further consolidation in the transport industry and creating one of the most unified north to south rail networks between Canada and Mexico

More rains are forecast for the western corn belt and central Kansas this week, with another 1-2″ possible across some of the central HRW areas.

Black Sea crop conditions still reportedly mostly are good, and there are now better chances for rain (20-30+ mm) across most of the Russian Hard Red Winter wheat areas into the coming week extended run forecasts, boosting optimism as we come out of dormancy.

Australia

Local markets remain slow on old crop, with more interest shifting into the new crop as planting approaches.  Wide bid/ask spreads on old crop wheat have slowed trade there, and barley felt slightly softer to start the week yesterday.

Field work is kicking into gear with early pasture plantings likely to start off into next week in the SE for some grazing canola, and regular crops set to start planting mid-April.

Forecasts remain very wet this week for the east coast, with widespread falls across northern NSW still calling for upwards of 1-2″ again.

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