Market settlement prices edged mostly firmer despite volatility.
- Chicago wheat May contract down US1cent per bushel to 1118.25c/bu;
- Kansas wheat May contract up 3.25c/bu to 1116.5c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat May up 7c/bu to 1095.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat May contract up €2.25/t to €379/t;
- Black Sea wheat July contract up $0.25/t to $359.50/t;
- Corn May contract down 3.25c/bu to 753c/bu;
- Soybeans May contract up 5.5c/bu to 1696.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$16.70 /t to $957.40/t;
- MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €16.75/t to €760.75/t;
- ASX July 2022 wheat contract up A$8.50 to $419.50/t;
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $4/t to $407/t;
- AUD dollar firmer at US$0.746.
Implied volatility calculations generally use the change from close to close, but if you used intraday ranges the result would be scarily big.
Chicago wheat found some daytime selling despite, at one stage in the night session, being 18c/bu higher.
If you have taken the time to trawl through the western press summary of the Ag impact from this war you could be excused for thinking wheat is the main issue. When you dig deeper it is clear that wheat is the side show and veg oil and corn are the main event. Plantings include just as much canola, soybeans and sunflowers as wheat and barley. Exports include 80pc of canola production and 90pc of processed sunflower oil, compared with under 70pc of wheat and 55pc of barley.
There is a growing acceptance that Russia will find a way to export its wheat crop. Most major importers of Russian wheat are either allies or are agnostic about the invasion. The alternate origin for other traditional buyers of Russian/Ukrainian wheat has been India, which will push between 10-12Mt onto the export market.
Corn balances range from tight to unsolvable. If you pencil in meaningful planting cuts in the Ukraine the need for the US crop to do the heavy lifting means planting intentions are extremely important. High input costs hurt corn so it will be interesting to see if the US farmer sticks to the rotation or looks to reduce growing costs. Private guesstimates are pushing corn acres sub 92 million acres which becomes problematic if there is a corresponding export uplift due to Ukraine supply.
The Parana River, the main export path for Argentina is at its lowest level in 78 years following 6 months rain deficiency.
Local markets pick up a bid. Eastern Australian wheat bids firmed yesterday amid interest for APW/ASW and SFW in Victorian port zones.
Barley bids continued firm. The delivered Darling Downs market now is around $355/t, wheat around $380/t and the spread between that and southern values is tight. Other trade markets were left displaying wide bid/offer spreads. Local canola bids continued to lag compared with offshore markets.
Shipping stem pressure in recent weeks, arising from the record-breaking March activity, appears to have caused deferral into April of about 0.5Mt of grain export. Waiting times are stepping up a little at most ports.
Scattered showers continued to pass over parts of SA and Vic yesterday. The forecast has built more moisture for WA and northern NSW. It will be great timing for WA farmers to receive a 15-25mm event.