Weather: Global winter wheat conditions are mixed. The Black Sea and eastern Europe remain too dry, western Europe is in reasonable shape though Spain may have received too much rain, and the US southern plains face deteriorating conditions as heat and dryness persist. China is in decent shape while India saw earlier heat concerns ease with a cooler week.

Markets:
A few days without markets seems like a lifetime at the moment. The fact Iran showed its reach over the weekend which, so far is 4000km, has certainly rattled everyone. The escalation in talk is scary – Trumps deadline creates a binary situation and its hard to see this going smoothly.
Long story short – as im typing, this feels like things get worse, not better – which basically means higher crude and fert.
The Inflationary nature of this conflict is being felt globally – the ability for the market to reflect this in commodities vs the cash flow pressure is the defining nature of fair value.
Day Ahead – Australia:
Feels like the Australian market is holding it breath waiting for some sort of resolution. The one thing that hasnt happened (as yet) is any panic buying from Asia – Maybe Argy has done the damage to demand and the cupboards are full – for the moment.
Pretty warm through the southern part of the cropping belt but some rain is still showing in the back end – particularly for WA but NNSW and SQLD is still missing out.

Global wheat:  Chicago May -12.75c, Kansas May -21c, Matif May -€3.75
Wheat markets ran out of steam on Friday, with all three benchmarks closing lower as the session saw buyers step away from the recent energy-driven rally.
The catalyst for the reversal was a combination of crude oil pushing higher and rain appearing in the 11-15 day GFS forecast for the southern plains, which weighed particularly on Kansas City.
The relationship between wheat and crude appears to have stretched to a point where further upside in energy is no longer drawing in fresh ag buyers, with the view emerging that crude may need to push convincingly beyond $100 before it acts as a lure again.
Paris Matif similarly lost ground while Russian cash remained unchanged at $240.50.
Looking ahead, the HRW crop condition scores due Monday are expected to deteriorate across Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas, with the GFS and European models still at odds on meaningful rainfall beyond ten days.
The southern plains drought story remains very much alive, and the pattern of forecasted rains failing to materialise — as was the case throughout late February and early March — means the market is unlikely to price in weather relief until it actually arrives.
On the supply side, Iran announced a domestic wheat procurement programme covering 10 million tonnes from an estimated 13 million tonne crop across 6.2 million hectares, with officials stating no imports will be required this season.

Other grains and oilseeds: Corn May -4.25c, Soybeans May -7.25c, Matif Canola May +€1.50
Corn held up relatively well compared to wheat, slipping only 4 cents as the session’s lethargic tone carried across the complex. Managed money continued to extend its net long position, adding 35,500 contracts this week to reach 228,800, sitting at approximately 53% of the historical record long.
The corn narrative remains intact — tight acreage expectations, elevated input costs and persistent demand — and there is growing chatter that corn could feature in any eventual trade deal with China, though clarity on that front is unlikely before May.
A weaker Brazilian real may have prompted some additional grower hedging pressure.
The soybean market gave back overnight gains through the day session, with meal correcting lower as higher values attracted more selling, while bean oil finished near unchanged.
May crush closed down 1.5 cents at 281. Meal availability uncertainty continues to hang over the market as high energy costs are expected to keep some processing facilities idle.
In Brazil, the elevated cost of diesel is adding friction to moving harvested beans to port.
The Trump-Xi meeting, now pencilled in for mid-May rather than April, has put old crop beans in a more difficult position and allowed spreads to tighten. RVO and SRE policy announcements are still expected around April 1.

Macro: AUD0.6990, Dow -443.96, Crude +2.18
The macro backdrop deteriorated sharply over the weekend and is likely to set a risk-off tone when markets reopen Sunday night.
Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday threatening to strike Iranian power plants unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened to commercial shipping. Iran countered with threats to close the strait entirely and target US and Israeli energy, technology and desalination infrastructure across the region.
The conflict, now in its 23rd day following the launch of Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion on February 28, shows no sign of de-escalation. Iranian strikes hit southern Israel near the Dimona nuclear research facility injuring around 100 civilians, while Iran also fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at the Diego Garcia US-UK base in the Indian Ocean, demonstrating a striking range that Netanyahu described as capable of reaching deep into Europe.
Brent crude has surged more than 50% since the war began and is trading above $112 a barrel, with oil and gas flows through Hormuz — normally accounting for one fifth of global supply — having effectively ground to a halt.
The disruption is rippling through fertiliser and crop nutrient supply chains, raising the prospect of meaningful impacts on food production.
The Dow shed nearly 444 points on Friday and the Australian dollar slipped under 0.7000, though both face further pressure as the geopolitical situation escalates.

Local: WA bids firmed into week’s end, with canola at $750, wheat $330 and barley $336. New crop bids were $795, $363 and $330 FIS Albany.
In the east bids were also firmer, with canola $735, wheat $325 and barley $309, while new season sat at $760, $350 and $310 track Geelong.
A liquidity vacuum continues to define the market. Growers remain slow sellers, with little likely to shift that in the near term as input costs stay elevated and appear to be rising further. Some cash flow selling is occurring, but with the correlation between crude and commodity prices in mind, most are still looking for higher values.
Handy falls are forecast to push into WA over the next week on the back of Cyclone Narelle, with much of the wheatbelt expected to record at least an inch. The timing is ideal and would leave all states apart from NSW and QLD carrying a reasonable moisture profile into seeding.