Daily Market Wire 23 May 2024

Lachstock Consulting, May 23, 2024

MATIF wheat and rapeseed firmed. US wheats eased.  Firmer US Dollar Index partly explains easier crude oil price.

  • Chicago December 2024 wheat down US5.75c/bu to 734c/bu;
  • Kansas Dec 2024 wheat down 3.75c/bu to 733.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 2c/bu to 761.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat Dec 2024 up €2.50/t to €264.75/t;
  • Corn Dec 2024 up 1.75c/bu to 484c/bu;
  • Soybeans Nov 2024 up 5.25c/bu to 1218.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 up C2.20/t to C$687.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €8.50/t to €496.25/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 wheat unchanged at $400/t;
  • ASX Jan 2025 barley unchanged at $337.50/t;
  • AUD dollar down 46 points to US$0.6620.


As production estimates continue to be wound back, Russian 12.5pc protein FOB wheat values have risen from around US$219/t on 7 May to $245/t on 22 May, the highest since early January. 

AgriCensus reported that as at 21 May, 2024-25 Russian spring crop plantings have been completed on 16.4Mha (equivalent to 55pc of intended area), including wheat on 5.8Mha (equivalent to 43pc of intended area and compares with 8Mha during the same period of the previous year), barley on 4.4Mha (62pc, 5.7m), maize on 2Mha (75pc, 2Mha) and rapeseed at 1.2Mha (72pc, 1.6Mha). 

According to Ukraine’s Agrarian Council, 2024-25 rapeseed production is likely to fall to 4.1Mt (4.7Mt previous year). Recent frosts are likely to have had an impact on yields, with reports from producers in the Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Kirovohrad regions indicating that damage to rapeseed crops in some areas is up to 30pc to 40pc. 

European Commission data shows that for the week ending 5 May, cumulative all-wheat exports are at 27.4Mt, down 4pc on previous year, while imports are at 10.3Mt, up 11pc. Barley exports are at 7.6Mt (-11pc) and canola imports are at 4.9Mt, down 28pc from previous year. 

According to the Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development Crop Report for the week ending 21 May, 2024-25 sowing is estimated at 47pc complete (25pc year ago, 52pc 5-year avg), including spring wheat and barley at 77pc complete, maize at 65pc and canola 20pc complete. While recent rainfall hampered fieldwork in some regions, soil moisture levels across most of the province were optimal. 

South Korea Feed Association reportedly purchased 60,000 tonnes of soymeal from optional origins, at $479.90/t c&f, including a surcharge for additional port unloading. 

The lowest price offered in Tunisia’s state grains agency tender for 100kt of soft wheat was reportedly $273.69/t c&f.


Local markets continue to follow the same theme. While everyone watches the forecast, market prices are following the offshore lead with the ASX Jan 25 wheat contract ending the day up another A$5/t at $405/t. Northern feed markets continue to strengthen as consumers step back in with prompt delivered Darling Downs barley at $425/t and SFW at $420/t. Despite what the forecast is saying, until we see some rain markets will continue to firm as growers and end users remain cautious.

ABS data shows that Australia exported 2.58Mt of wheat in March, up 12pc from February. The biggest market, China, took 743kt followed by Indonesia (411kt), Yemen (344kt) and South Korea (162kt). This takes marketing year to date exports to China to 2.92Mt, around 66pc less than exports over the same period last year.


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