Canola firmed 2 percent. MATIF and the ASX grain prices were marked a little lower.

• Chicago December 2024 wheat up US3.75c/bu to 576c/bu;
• Kansas Dec 2024 wheat up 4.25c/bu to 586.5c/bu;
• Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat up 2.5c/bu to 616.5c/bu;
• MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €0.75/t to €223.50/t;
• Corn Dec 2024 up 7c/bu to 416.5c/bu;
• Soybeans Nov 2024 up 10.75c/bu to 991.75c/bu;
• Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 up C$12.60/t to $632.70/t;
• MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €7/t to €511.50/t;
• ASX Jan 2025 wheat down A$2/t to $327/t;
• ASX Jan 2025 barley down A$3.50/t to $282.50/t;
• AUD dollar up 24 points to US$0.6682.

The day ahead

Weather – More of the same weather conditions are bringing some relief to the winter wheat belt of Russia and some more on the way. Conditions are deteriorating in the US. Our weather guy indicates dry conditions now cover 90pc of the HRW wheat belt. The weather pattern in Russia and Ukraine combined is feeling very similar to 2020 which eventually led to an acreage cut of 1Mha due to abandonment. They still managed to produce 85Mt and 25Mt respectively, however. US weather clearly impacting production but also, due to low levels of water in the river systems, there is now an adverse impact on the supply chain.

Markets – Rinse / repeat. Vegoils and energy all firm. Or is that energy and vegoil? Not sure what’s driving what. Winnipeg is up over C$37/t in 4 sessions while Matif canola is up over €67/t since mid-Aug. AUD remains stuck 0.6700 – Jobs data out in the states tomorrow night, CPI out locally next week.

Australian day ahead – Firm. The push pull we get at the start of every harvest feels a little more robust this year. It feels like the trade has not been able to put on a big east coast export forward book so with Russian FOB firming, and the AUD remaining offered, they would be doing the numbers. Meanwhile, canola is the perfect storm – offshore strength coupled with domestic quality challenges have kept basis firm. GIAV crop tour results are out today or tomorrow which, anecdotally, should remove the most pessimistic Vic production estimates.

International

On Monday morning, there was a surge of flash sales for corn and soybeans, followed by another one this morning for corn. This latest sale totalled 359,500 tonnes (about 14 million bushels) for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Monday’s weekly export inspections for corn were just under 1Mt, falling within the expected range. 

The US weekly crop progress report released yesterday revealed that 65pc of the US corn crop has been harvested, which is 2pc ahead of expectations and significantly faster than the average pace. The soybean harvest is now 81pc complete, matching expectations and well ahead of the 67pc average. The lack of rainfall across the Midwest has helped accelerate the harvest, with minimal weather delays. 

The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment, Paul Tudor Jones has predicted the US will soon be dealing with higher rates in response to the promises made during this election cycle. “Will we have a Minsky moment where all of a sudden there’s a point of recognition that what they’re talking about is fiscally impossible, financially impossible?”. Donald is now as short as he has been, A$1.52 for the win with the bookies, Kamala at AUD$2.50. 

According to Russian Grain Union estimates, over the first 9 months of 2024, wheat flour exports amounted to more than 920kt. In comparison, year-on-year, the volume of deliveries increased by 1.3 times in physical terms.