Daily Market Wire 23 September 2022

Lachstock Consulting, September 23, 2022

Grain markets lifted more. Canola gained 2-4pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US7 cents per bushel to 910.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 12.5c/bu to 979.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 13.5c/bu to 977.75c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €2.25/t to €349.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract up $2/t to $327/t;
  • Corn December contract up 2.75c/bu to 688.25/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract down 4.25c/bu to 1457c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract was up C$17.40/t to $819.60/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up  €25.75/t to €605.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up A$1/t to $432/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$322.50/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.664.


Black Sea market analyst Sovecon said on Thursday it had raised its forecast for Russia’s 2022 wheat crop to 100Mt (Mt) from 94.7Mt due to high yields of spring wheat. “Russian wheat crop is to exceed the previous record of 86.0Mt [produced in 2020] by 14Mt thanks to almost ideal weather for winter wheat and good weather for spring wheat,” Sovecon principal Andrey Sizov said.

The IGC raised its forecast for 2022/23 global wheat production, mainly reflecting an upward revision for the crop in Russia. It pegged global wheat production at 792Mt in 2022/23, up from a previous projection of 778 million and now above the prior season’s 782Mt. Russia is now expected to produce 93.4Mt, up from a previous forecast of 87.6Mt.

The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its Argentine wheat crop estimate by 1.2Mt to 16.5Mt as drought has trimmed yield potential. It now forecasts the country’s 2022-23 corn production at 56Mt, down 2Mt from the previous outlook as drought has delayed planting of the crop. The exchange raised its soybean crop forecast by 1Mt to 48Mt as it now expects 200,000 hectares originally intended for corn to be switched to soybeans.

Ukraine’s 2023 wheat crop may decrease to 16Mt to 18Mt, down from 19Mt this year due to an expected fall in the winter wheat sowing area, first deputy agriculture minister Taras Vysotskyi said on Tuesday. Ukrainian ag officials have said the area under winter wheat could fall by at least 20pc due to Russian occupation of some areas of the country as farmers prefer to sow oilseeds that have stable export demand.

Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market on Thursday to buy yen for the first time since 1998 in attempt to shore up the currency after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) stuck with ultra-low interest rates. Japan’s currency has depreciated nearly 20pc this year, sinking to 24-year lows, largely as aggressive US interest rate hikes push the dollar to 20-year highs. 


Local markets are quiet given yesterday’s public holiday and today’s public holiday for the AFL Grand Final in Victoria.

Heavy rainfall in eastern NSW is causing flooding at Tamworth, Wee Waa, Wellington and Narromine, and flooding is possible at Gunnedah. Conditions are not expected to improve over the weekend as a low-pressure system persists over the area. 

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