Friday’s markets eased again.
- Chicago wheat December 2023 contract down US8.25 cents per bushel to 697.75c/bu;
- Kansas wheat December 2023 contract down 3c/bu to 820.5c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat December 2023 down 7.75c/bu to 848.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat December 2023 down €4.50/t to €247.75/t;
- Black Sea wheat December 2023 down US$0.25/t to $290/t;
- Corn July 2023 contract down 10.75c/bu to 615.25c/bu;
- Soybeans July 2023 contract down 19.5c/bu to 1449c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract up C$2/t to $729.90/t;
- MATIF rapeseed August 2023 contract down €3/t to €457.50/t;
- ASX January 2024 wheat contract up A$1/t to $393/t;
- ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$340.20/t;
- AUD dollar eased 50 points to US$0.6691
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that for the week ending 19 Apr, Argentina’s 2022-23 soybean harvest was 17pc complete (4pc week ago, 19pc year ago), with conditions rated 36pc fair/excellent (34pc, 70pc). Reflecting smaller than anticipated yields, production was revised down by another 2.5Mt, to 22.5Mt (43.3Mt previous year). With receding grain moisture levels aiding fieldwork, maize harvest reached 15pc complete (13pc week ago, 23pc year ago), with conditions rated 47pc fair/excellent (47pc, 77pc). A recent frost event in Buenos Aires province impacted some fields in grain filling stage. Although mixed yields were noted in northern growing regions amid variable rainfall volumes, the production forecast is maintained at 36.0Mt (52.0Mt previous year)
Romania has said they would not ban Ukraine grain imports, instead waiting on the European Commission’s measures to aid farmers. Poland has resumed transit of Ukrainian food products after a temporary ban last week and Hungary’s end users said they oppose the government’s ban saying it would lead to shortages
FranceAgriMer reports that as at 17 Apr, 2023-24 common wheat crop was rated 93pc good/excellent (94pc previous week, 91pc previous year), winter barley at 91pc (92pc, 87pc) and spring barley at 95pc (95pc, 92pc). 2023-24 maize sowing at 20pc complete (12pc previous week, 29pc previous year)
Ukrainian farmers have sown about 1 million hectare of spring grains as of Friday, according to the Agriculture Ministry. This compares with 1.53 million hectares planted at the same time last year. Spring wheat plantings are at 169,100 hectare up from 164,400 last year. Area planted to spring barley fell to 557,400 hectares, compared to 802,200 hectares and corn plantings are at 53,400 hectares compared to 323,200 hectare last year
Ukraine’s year to date grain exports are down 11pc at 40.6Mt, according to Agriculture Ministry data. The total includes 13.9Mt of wheat (-25pc) 2.4Mt of barley (-57pc) and 23.9Mt of corn, which is up 15pc year on year
According to China’s Agricultural Outlook Report, 2023-24 wheat and rice production forecast is largely unchanged year on year, while soybean and maize production are set to increase. Output from oil crops, including rapeseed, is forecast to increase by 5pc. Aided by ag. science and technology development, total grain production is projected to expand by around 1.2pc annually over the next decade, as the country aims to increase rice exports by 24pc over the period and cut grain imports by 20pc
Fediol data reveals that EU March soybean crush was 1.2Mt (+8pc from Feb, -15pc on same month of previous year), rapeseed crushing at 1.6Mt (+3pc from Feb, +11pc compared to March last year), sunflowerseed at 520,000 tonnes (+13pc, +15pc)
Philippines importers reportedly purchased 60,000t feed wheat from Australia at around $290.00 c&f
South Korean millers purchased around 50 000t Australian milling wheat, ranging from $293-325/tonne FOB for July-Aug shipment.
Local markets finished last week sideways to slightly down on the boards. Wheat values were off a few bucks along the East Coast, however wheat in SA got a late bid and was a touch stronger to finish the week out. Barley was largely unchanged and canola was a touch softer on the cash boards.
The 8 day forecast has more rain on the way, with NSW looking like it will pick up the heaviest totals with 10-25mm for most winter cropping regions. South east NSW has 25-50mm on the radar. Southern QLD, VIC SA and most of WA are looking at 5-15mm with heavier totals expected in south eastern WA. You couldn’t ask for a better autumn break in many regions, with 2023-24 winter crop looking pretty positive at this early stage despite the longer term outlook.
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