Daily market wire 24 Aug 2016

Lachstock Consulting, August 24, 2016


StatsCan came out overnight providing higher wheat estimates with lower canola, soybean and lentil figures.

The 16/17 Canadia ncanola output was estimated at marginally over 17mmt, vastly below some estimates of 20mmt as a result of potentially understated acres and yields. All wheat registered at 30.49mil, 10.5 percent higher than 2015, vs market predictions of28-32mil although quality concerns still remain.

Wheat markets were backed into a corner over night with Matif continuing to drag the chain.

As a result there is a sea of red numbers as the market continues to get hit.

Russia seem to be playing a game of cat and mouse amongst themselves with some predicting a decline in overall crop figures, whilst others are bumping up the export predictions to 30.4mil from 25.5mil in July.

This is sure to provide an exciting dynamic in the Baltic considering the grim situation in France. CBOT Wheat was down -7.5c to 407.75c, Kansas wheat down -6.5c to 407.25c, corn down -4.75c to 328.5c,soybeans down -2.25c to 1013.5c, Winnipeg canola down 0.6$C to 472.8$C, and Matif canola unchanged at 378€. The Dow Jones up 17.88  to 18547.3 , CrudeOil down -0.61c to 47.49c, AUD down to 0.76127c, CAD up to 1.29207c, (AUD-CAD0.98363) and the was EUR down to 1.13045c (AUD-EUR 0.6733).

In the world of corn, US-based Pro Farmer Crop Tour suggested that South Dakota average corn yields are149.78 vs three year average of 160.13. Overall they found an average corn yield of 148.96 vs the three year average of 167.37 –

Remembering that USDA is forecasting 175 nationally, it seems Pro Farmer are looking at a different crop to the USDA so far. It would appear Pro Farmer believe boots on the ground are more effective than eyes in the sky.

In other news, Cofco continue to pass go and collect $200 as they plan to buy out 100 percent of Nidera. Time will tell what impact this will have in the Australian market in terms buying competition.


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