Daily Market Wire 24 August 2018

Lachstock Consulting August 24, 2018

Lower for grains and oilseeds.

  • CBOT wheat down -4c to 522c
  • Kansas wheat down-2.75c to 527.25c,
  • Corn down -5.75c to 346.75c,
  • soybeans down -16.25c to 842c,
  • Winnipeg canola down -5$C to 496.6$C, and
  • Matif canola down -2€ to 374.75€.
  • The Dow Jones down -96.20 to 25637.39,
  • Crude Oil down -0.019c to $US67.84 per barrel,
  • AUD down to 0.724c,
  • CAD up to 1.308c, (AUDCAD 0.947) and the
  • EUR down to 1.153c (AUDEUR 0.627).


Wheat was under pressure from disappointing export sales that combined with a drag from corn to see it break below the 50-day moving average, before bouncing higher to finish with moderate losses. Implied vol in Sep SRW finished at 25pc. Weekly export sales came in at 254,000t which was far below market expectations, Indonesia cancelled a white wheat purchase which was unforeseen. Matif wheat was down -€1/t to €204/t and Russian cash values were US$1-2 higher. Wheat prices have endured some heavy selling this week, but globally the supply situation has not improved, once demand re-engages it’s hard not to see support building in wheat.


Corn prices were under pressure as US yields continue to climb higher as the crop tour winds to an end. The Illinois yield estimates came in at 192.6 bpa which is 6.6pc higher than last year. Export sale came in at 1.178Mt which was above market expectations, but not enough to overshadow the increase yield calculations. The corn chart is looking technically weak having broken through the 50-day moving average on Wednesday night. With increasing yield potential and ongoing political uncertainty, it is not hard to envisage a heavy grower selling program come harvest. This order flow could drive prices towards new lows but should be stopped by export demand given the tight global situation. African swine fever is spreading in China and forcing a culling of the herd, which could lead to reduced feed demand if it reaches extreme levels, we are not there yet but it’s in the back of some traders’ minds.


Beans suffered further thanks to US yields and politics. Yield potential in the US continues to increase as the Pro Farmer crop tour showed pod counts in Illinois up 8pc on last year. Export sales came in at 1.25Mt with new crop accounting for 1.1Mt which was double the market’s expectations and marked the largest weekly sales figures for this marketing year. Mexico were roughly 40pc of this but “unknown” (usually China) were the surprise factor coming in at around 32pc. The US and Chinese governments enforced their new tariffs on US$16billion worth of goods, as their trade relationship continues to deteriorate. Soymeal was down $7.40 per tonne and soy oil was down 19 points.


Canola suffered reasonable losses in both contracts as a weaker vegoil complex was not constructive for potential buyers. Canola is just as easily impacted by negative trade news as beans and will remain a follower until some sort of resolution is reached.


Aussie prices softened yesterday as the WA farmer got their selling boots on. This coincided with an improvement to the 8-day forecast in NSW which is now calling for 15-20 mm with reasonable coverage. As previously discussed this will not turn the crop around, but it does change sentiment which is very important given how far the market has recently climbed. Monday will make for an interesting trading session as we will know the outcome of NSW rainfall and will also get a new look at the CBOT COT position after the close on Friday. This market is all about order flow and we may have done enough selling for now.


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