Crop tour results from ProFarmer pegged US production at 14.8 billion bushels (Bbu) of corn, below the USDA estimate of 15.3Bbu and soybeans at 4.35 Bbu, below the USDA at 4.44Bbu.  We also saw another large chunk of soybean sales flashed, with 400,000t then 368,000t sold to an to unknown destination believed to be China.  Corn flashes had 405,000t of Chinese business there too.  The USDA is going to be surveying for impacts in Iowa to include in September crop reports; many are extrapolating the crop tour results in an attempt to estimate what the USDA may include.

Otherwise, the global ag side was relatively quiet into the weekend.  Argentina remains dry, although there is some rain forecast for the coming week. Spring wheat harvests are still plugging along around the world.  US corn markets saw a little bit of optimism creeping in with the later crop tour comments, but there’s still the reality of a big crop mixed with big stocks.  How much more of this China business can we see happen?  It’s been a multibillion dollar question for a few months now, with no improvement in clarity.  What happens as the election approaches?  How about post election?  Politics makes for messy bedfellows, and the US-China export program this year has been disproportionately influenced by political goals.

Grain markets bounced on Friday by $2-3/t, with the January ASX market settling at $275/t. Canola remained relatively unchanged. The season continues to roll on, with a fantastic August rainfall for large parts of the cropping regions. In Victoria in particular, we note that the Western Districts received up to 45-50 millimetres over the past week, with much of it falling over the weekend. Some very wet paddocks will cause some headaches for fieldwork.