Canola strengthened about 1pc. Other markets moved each way in fractions.
- Chicago wheat December contract up US5.25c/bu to 733.5c/bu;
- Kansas wheat December contract up 1.75c/bu to 717.5;
- Minneapolis wheat December contract up 3.5c/bu to 905.75c;
- MATIF wheat December contract up €2/t to €246.50/t;
- Corn December contract was down 1.5c/bu to 535.5c;
- Soybeans November contract up 2c/bu to 1292.75c;
- Winnipeg canola November contract was up C$11.20 to $876.10;
- MATIF rapeseed November contract up €4/t to €561.50/t;
- US dollar index down 0.5 to 93.0;
- AUD firmer at US$0.721;
- CAD firmer at $1.265;
- EUR firmer at $1.175;
- ASX wheat September contract up A$3/t to A$359/t;
- ASX wheat January 2022 down $2/t to $350/t.
International
In the wheat pits Chicago settled up 5.25 usc/bu closing at 733.5usc/bu, Kansas was 1.75 usc/bu higher to settle at 717.5usc/bu, while Minni rallied 3.5 usc/bu to go out at 905.75usc/bu. Corn fell -1.5 usc/bu to go out at 535.5usc/bu while Beans were up 2 usc/bu to settle at 1292.75usc/bu WCE Canola rallied 11.2 CAD/mt closing at 876.1CAD/mt with Matif Canola finishing higher by 4 Eur/mt. In outside markets the Dow Jones gained 215.63 points, Crude was up 3.47 bbl the Aussie was 0.009 points higher to settle at 0.72055, the CAD softened -0.0165 while the EUR gained 0.0052
Russia updated its harvest progress report which went missing for a few weeks. Extrapolating the report would give a 74Mt-type wheat production number, slightly over the USDA 72.5Mt. The mystery surrounding Russian production and price action continues.The Russian government indicated they would produce around 127Mt of grain – given this is more than enough to satisfy the local market it’s a mystery why the interior market is so firm.
Much-anticipated rainfall throughout the US and Canada was mixed. Much more rainfall is needed to undo the damage done with many areas simply too late. The USDA lowered the corn good-to-excellent rating another 2pc to 60pc. Beans were also lowered by 1pc to 56pc.
The EPA is in a position to lodge their review of the Renewable Fuel Subsidy (RFS) to the Office of Management and Budget. So much noise, some suggesting cuts, some suggesting increases. Pretty hard to gauge what the outcome will be. It’s also worth noting that the OMB doesn’t have to accept their proposal.
The gap between the USDA condition rating for row crops and independent crop forecasters is getting wider. The Pro Farmer tour pretty much said “nothing to see here” while the USDA is plumbing new lows. Ultimately the corn market is now about the demand side. China and the EPA both can turn the balance sheet from feast to famine in the stroke of a pen or one phone call.
Australia
Local markets started the week off relatively unchanged from the previous week on old and new crop. However, new season canola bids came off A$10-13/t with offshore oilseed markets drifting lower. Delivered wheat markets into Geelong/Melbourne were bid $360/t throughout the day for ASW1. H2 markets along the east coast, bid side, were $370/t delivered back into the mills and packers for Jan-plus-carry 2022.
We continue to see export demand pushing along up till the end of Oct, moreso on barley through Vic/NSW where there is still available stock to access and be moved over the coming months. Old crop track markets for barley have been trading around $270/t in Victoria.
The rain event has come in a timely manner for growers, widespread rains across NSW cropping areas with upwards to 30mm falling and recorded at Dubbo in the past 24hrs. Scattered showers also pushed through SA yesterday, topping up their moisture profile, which continues to boost the season and build yield potential into cereals.
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Source: Lachstock Consulting
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