Russia and Ukraine traded drone strikes yesterday with Russian drones targeting Ukrainian grain infrastructure at the port of Izmail on the Danube again and Ukraine reportedly striking office buildings in Moscow. Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said in a Facebook post that port strike destroyed 13,000 tonnes of grain, bringing the month’s total grain losses to around 270,000 tonnes.

The Financial Times reported that Ukraine is finalising a scheme with global insurers to cover grain ships travelling to and from its Black Sea ports. Special envoy for Ukraine’s economy ministry, Oleksandr Gryban, told the newspaper the deal was being pursued and actively discussed between the relevant ministries, local banks and international insurance groups, including Lloyd’s of London. The scheme could be implemented as early as next month and see as many as five to 30 ships covered to travel through what he described as the danger spot of Ukrainian waters. 

Participants on the US Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour have reported corn yields in Nebraska averaging 167.2 bu/acre. The 2022 tour average was 158.5 bu/acre and three-year average is 172 bu. Soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square average was 1160 pods, up from 1063.7 pods last year but down from the 1196 pods 3-year avg. Corn yields in Indiana are estimated at 180.89 bu/acre, above last year’s crop tour average of 177.85 bu/acre but below the 3-year average of 183.72 and well below the USDA August forecast for a record 195 bu/acre. Indiana soybeans are seen averaging 1,309.96 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square, exceeding both last year’s 1,165.97 and the 3-year average of 1,228.94 pods. 

South Korea’s Nonghyup Feed Inc reportedly seeks up to 130,000 tonnes of feed wheat from optional origins (excl. Argentina, China, Denmark, Pakistan and Russia) for Nov/Dec arrival and up to 138,000 tonnes of maize from optional origins, Dec arrival.

Australia

Local markets continued to rally yesterday. Feed grain markets on the Darling Downs were firmer with new crop delivered wheat bids at $470/t and offers are $480/t. Barley was up once again. South Australian current crop barley was firmer and new crop grower bids finished the day bid at $330/t track.

The size of the Australian crop is a hot topic with a very wide range of production estimates doing the rounds. There is no doubt that the market is factoring in a shrinking crop but is it as low as some of the numbers out there? We don’t think so, not yet anyway. Weekly rainfall totals of 10-25mm (some pockets up to 50mm) for SA, Vic and southern NSW were well timed. Central and northern NSW received patchy totals, mostly less than 10mm and Qld missed out again. There is some more rain predicted on the longer-range forecast for northern NSW and Qld, but not enough to be a game changer though it will certainly be welcome.