Daily Market Wire 24 February 2023

Lachstock Consulting February 24, 2023

Oilseeds markets eased. Wheat markets were mixed. Brent crude gained 2pc.

  • Chicago wheat May 2023 contract up US0.5 cents per bushel to 750.5c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat May 2023 contract down 12.5c/bu at 856.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat May 2023 contract down 5c/bu to 904c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat May 2023 contract up €4/t to €283.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract down US$0.25/t to $300.25;
  • Corn May 2023 contract down 15c/bu to 659.25c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2023 contract down 7.5c/bu to 1527.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2023 contract down C$9/t to $822.70/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2023 contract down €13.50/t to €544.50/t;
  • ASX Mar 2023 wheat contract down A$2.70/t to $391.30;
  • ASX Mar 2023 barley contract down A$0.80/t to $328/t;
  • AUD dollar gained less than one-tenth per cent to US$0.681.


USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum numbers for 2023 US plantings were in line with trade estimates for corn (91 million acres, 90.9 expected) but lower for soybeans (87.5 million acres, 88.6 expected) and higher for wheat (49.5 million acres, 48.7 expected). If realised, it would be the biggest wheat area planted since 2016. 

Corn and soybean production estimates in Argentina have been lowered again as a result of harsh dry and hot conditions, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) said in its weekly report. Corn output is lowered to 41Mt from the previous estimate of 44.5Mt. Soybean production was also lowered to 33.5Mt, down 4.5Mt from the previous estimate, following early frosts on the western edge of the agricultural area, lack of rain, and the heat registered during the beginning of February. 

Refinitiv Commodities Research cut its 2022-23 corn production outlook for Argentina by a further 1pc, to 43.4Mt, amid continued suboptimal conditions across key growing areas of the eastern Pampas in particular. Similarly, reflecting limited moisture in core producing regions, 2022-23 soybean output seen 2pc lower than before, at 39.5Mt. 

It also cut its outlook for India’s 2023-24 wheat production by 1pc, to 108.6Mt, citing extreme heat observed more recently in key producing states, including in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. 

According to Kazakhstan’s Ag. Minister, total crop acreage in 2023-24 is seen at 23.4m ha, marginally higher year on year, with some increase seen for grains and sunflowerseed, contrasting with reductions for soybeans and cotton. 

Brazil grain exporters’ association, ANEC, estimated Feb soybean exports at 8.3Mt (9.4Mt previous forecast), soymeal at 1.4Mt (1.9Mt), maize at 2.0Mt (2.1Mt) and wheat at 670,400t (489,600t). 

Egypt’s GASC purchased 240,000t wheat from Russia, at $317.50/t c&f for Apr shipment. 

Jordan’s state grains buyer reportedly purchased about 60,000t feed barley from optional origins, at $295/t c&f for Jul shipment.


In local markets, the ASX Eastern Australia May wheat contract firmed slightly late in the day, to $396/t. Overall though bids were mostly unchanged. Road freight rates saw some weakness as rail pathways ramp efficiency. Track to delivered spread squeezed slightly as a result.

Sorghum harvest is continuing, with the hot conditions bringing crops in earlier. Quality is reportedly mostly good at his stage but we are yet to see the later sown crop, which is the crop most at risk, hit the bins. 


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