US wheat markets fell 3pc overnight. Corn and oilseeds eased a little. The Australian currency gained 1pc.
- Chicago wheat March 2023 contract down US 21.5 cents per bushel to 720c/bu;
- Kansas wheat March 2023 contract down 29c/bu at 819c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat March 2023 contract down 25c/bu to 887.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat March 2023 contract down €5.50/t to €279.25/t;
- Black Sea wheat March 2023 contract down US$1.75/t to $306.75/t;
- Corn March 2023 contract down 10c/bu to 666.25c/bu;
- Soybeans March 2023 contract down 16.25c/bu to 1490.25c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract down C$6.20/t to $806.70/t;
- MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €3.75/t to €529.25/t;
- ASX Mar 2023 wheat contract unchanged at A$375/t;
- ASX Mar 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$307.50/t;
- AUD dollar gained 1pc to US$0.703.
Dry areas of Kansas and Colorado benefited from snow over the weekend and more precipitation is forecast for the Southern Plains this week. The next system is expected to bring relief to dry areas of Oklahoma and Texas.
According to World Weather Inc Argentina received enough rain late last week and during the weekend to provide temporary improvements to topsoil moisture, though more will be needed to break the drought pattern. Argentina will receive more rains over the next week to 10 days, with rainfall this week expected to be greatest in the northwest. Brazil will continue to see mostly favourable weather, though some centre-south areas will remain too wet, and parts of Rio Grande do Sul will stay too dry.
According to data from the Joint Coordination Centre, exports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative totalled about 893,874 tonnes in the week to 22 January (490,825 tonnes exported in previous week).
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released first projections for 2023-24 production. Canola production is forecast at 18.5mmt (18.2mmt previous year) on a slight increase in planted area and assumed normal abandonment of crop area and trend yields. All wheat production forecast at 34.3mmt (33.8mmt previous year) due to an increase in planted area, supported by strong prices, with yields seen steady y/y. Barley production is forecast at 10Mt, the same as the previous year. Slightly lower yields are expected to be offset by higher sown area buoyed by high prices.
The EU’s Monitoring Agriculture Resources (MARS) January report notes that winter crops were in good condition across much of Europe, and so far, frost damage has been limited. Although, a rapid increase in temperatures toward the end of the year with record-breaking New Year’s Eve temperatures (locally surpassing +20 °C) in eastern France, Germany, Poland and the alpine regions initiated a de-hardening period and melted snowpack over agricultural areas. While winter cereals in Russia, the Baltic countries, and Scandinavia are still fully to almost fully hardened, those in most other parts of Europe are currently only partially hardened. This de-hardening process leads to a higher vulnerability in case of new cold spells. Moreover, alternating freeze/thaw cycles can damage plants, thus reducing their vigour and negatively affecting spring regrowth.
Reuters reports that Chinese importers bought five to six panamax cargoes (60,000 tonnes each) of French barley for shipment in the coming months. The latest sales were believed to have taken place in the past three weeks. The barley was thought to have been sold for livestock feed rather than malt production.
Local markets were flat yesterday with ASX wheat unchanged at AUD$375/mt. Prices were also flat on the boards on the east coast with Geelong APW1 a buck lower. The big falls in Chicago overnight and a stronger AUD are not likely to be a good combination for local markets today.
According to ABS data we exported an impressive 829,745 tonnes of canola in November, the second highest monthly total on record. Germany was our biggest market taking 257,644t, followed by France with 185,570t and Belgium with 125,649t.