Markets

Daily Market Wire 24 January 2024

Lachstock Consulting, January 24, 2024

Markets tended firmer.

  • Chicago March 2024 wheat unchanged at US596.5c/bu;
  • Kansas March 2024 wheat up 10.5c/bu to 617.5c/bu;
  • Minneapolis March 2024 wheat down 1.5c/bu to 699c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat March 2024 up €0.75/t to €217.50/t;
  • Black Sea wheat futures has not quoted since 11 August 2023;
  • Corn May 2024 up 0.5c/bu to 456.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans May 2024 up 14c/bu to 1247c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola May 2024 up C$1.90/t to C$643.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed May 2024 up €6/t to €437.50/t ;
  • ASX March 2024 wheat up A$6.70/t to $372.50/t;
  • ASX March 2024 barley unchanged at A$298.50/t;
  • AUD dollar up 10 points to US$0.6580

International

Grain futures were mostly higher. Soybeans led following a drier 6-10-day forecast report for Brazil resulting in speculator short covering. Argentina was mostly dry over the past 24hrs and this is expected to continue for the remainder of the week with temps increasing. 

Looking ahead to the expected 2024 US acreage, S&P Global predicts 2024 US corn plantings at 93 million acres (Mac) compared with 94.6Mac in 2023. It forecast soybeans area at 85.5Mac (83.6Mac in 2023) and all wheat plantings at 47.225Mac (49.6Mac in 2023). StoneX expect the US farmer to plant 92.1 million corn acres and is working off a 30-year trendline yield of 180.6 bu/ac at this stage. 

Canada’s Agriculture and Agri-Food agency released its preliminary assumptions for 24/25 grains. Wheat area is projected at 10.73 million hectares (Mha) vs the 10.94Mha last year. Wheat yield is expected to recover 8pc with net output at 4.2pc higher to 33.3Mt. 

US Federal Reserve Bank officials said last week the US central bank needs more inflation data in hand before any rate cut judgement could be made. All eyes are on this week’s US flash Purchasing Managers Index report on Wednesday, fourth quarter advance GDP estimates on Thursday and then personal consumption expenditures data on Friday. Markets are expecting the US central bank to hold rates unchanged at the end of the month.

Japan is seeking 89,000t of milling wheat in its regular weekly tender, including 33kt from the US and 56kt from Canada. 

Algeria issued a tender for up to 240,000t of corn overnight, tender closes tomorrow with Argy and Brazil expected to feature.

Australia

Eastern states canola caught some attention again as some behind the scenes bidding was helping to prop up track values. Bid price at A$635/t PKE was the best on ground with some sellers trickling out. 

The delivered end user markets for cereals have remained steady with the bid mostly unchanged. Some optimisation has been occurring as traders shuffle their book. This can provide some opportunities, but for now the market seems comfortable. 

WA wheat and canola values were broadly unchanged yesterday. APW1 in ESP went through at $400/t FIS, H2 in KWI traded a couple dollars higher at $417/t. The most competitive grower bids on canola were around $690/t FIS for CAN and $660/t for CAG.

 

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