International

Agricensus estimates Russian wheat harvest to be 38pc complete for the week ending 19 July, with average yields at 3.6t/ha (-8pc from previous year). Barley harvest is 16pc complete with average yields at 3.3t/ha (-13pc). Rapeseed 13pc complete with average yields at 2.1t/ha (-13pc). 

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said Russia had already harvested more than 50Mt of grain, including over 43Mt of wheat. 

Black Sea market analyst SovEcon revised upward its Russian wheat crop estimate by 100kt to 84.2Mt. It cut corn production by 1.2Mt to 13.4Mt due to hot weather, which has caused significant damage to late crops, particularly in the south. It revised July total grain export forecast up by 0.1Mt to 3.5Mt (4.7Mt June), largely reflecting an increase for wheat which is now seen at 2.9Mt (4Mt).

Brazil’s national agricultural agency Conab reported that as at 21 July, 2023-24 first (full-season) maize harvest was 98pc complete (99pc previous year). Second (safrinha) maize crop 78pc complete (48pc). Fieldwork is nearing completion in Mato Grosso, with good yields reported. Despite some fieldwork delays due to wet weather, crops in Paraná are in mostly good condition. Good progress was reported in Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás. 2024-25 wheat harvest was 4pc complete (2pc previous year). Favourable conditions supported crop development and aided fieldwork in Rio Grande do Sul, however, progress in Paraná was hampered by rain. 

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) reported that after incorporating recent data from Statistics Canada, 2024-25 all-wheat production forecast was revised up by 0.8Mt this month, to 35.4Mt (32Mt previous year) and durum revised up by 0.6Mt, to 6.3Mt (4Mt). Barley was cut by 1Mt, to 8.5Mt (8.9Mt). Canola was revised up by 0.5Mt to 18.6Mt (18.3Mt previous year). 

EU vegetable oil and protein meal industry association FEDIOL data shows EU June crush at 2.95Mt, down from 3.34m in May but slightly higher than June 2023 (2.91Mt). Soybean crush estimated at 1.10Mt (1.24Mt May) and canola at 1.38Mt (1.58Mt). Cumulative 2024 (Jan-Dec) crush is at 20.03Mt, compared to 19.21Mt over the same period last year, including soybeans at 7.13Mt (7.12Mt) and canola at 9.77Mt (9.43Mt). 

US private exporters reported sales of 200kt of corn to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

We saw increases across the board in WA yesterday following the bounce in offshore values. Barley and new crop wheat saw a slight increase, while nearby wheat gained A$10-20/t. Canola again was the big mover with $20-30/t gains for both nearby and new crop. GM spreads have widened further for new crop with Kwinana at +85/t for non-GM. 

In the east, canola continued its climb yesterday with increases of $10-15/t. The spread between GM and non-GM remains wide at around $50/t. Canola has rallied $80/t over the last month. Production risk is being eroded to a degree as growers slowly trickle volume out. Wheat is now under half the value of canola. The ASX Jan 25 wheat contract gained another $3/t yesterday to close at $346/t.