Markets

Daily Market Wire 24 March 2021

Lachstock Consulting, March 24, 2021

Slight firming across the board on agricultural commodities even as macro markets sold off. Crude oil was down nearly four bucks, with WTI hitting $57.8/ Brent $60.1 after more lockdowns hit in the EU and compounded by higher crude inventory reports.  The DOW was down 308 points.

  • Chicago wheat May contract up US7.5c/bu to 634.75c;
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 3.75c/bu to 582c;
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract up 4.25c/bu to 630.25c;
  • MATIF wheat May contract up €2.25/t to €221;
  • Corn May contract up 2.25c/bu to 551.25c;
  • Soybeans May contract up 5.75c/bu to 1423.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract down C$13.10/t to $782.80;
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €7.75/t to €520.75;
  • US dollar index up 0.6 to 92.4;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.762;
  • CAD weaker at $1.259;
  • EUR weaker at $1.185;
  • ASX wheat May contract up A$1/t to $281;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 down $3/t to $290.50.

International

Renewed lockdowns in Europe including Germany have spooked macro markets as ideas for a rapid recovery globally take a hit.  Some call it a “third wave” that could extend the global slowdowns through the end of 2021.

Meanwhile, the chairman of the US Fed has further downplayed their concerns about inflation in comments to the US government regarding the current state of the economy in the coronavirus world

Next week’s moisture in Brazil is still holding on the weather maps, with nice dry conditions this week allowing for good fieldwork progress and chances of moisture into next week to help newly planted safrinha corn.  Longer term outlooks remain concerning with the late corn crop though.

China’s Ag Ministry is reporting that some 9 million breeding hogs were culled during Jan/Feb due to the ASF outbreaks. The cull could mean an overall 200 million head reduction in pig numbers.

More reports emerged of Chinese buying interest for old crop Ukrainian corn.

Black Sea weather maps remain fairly moist into the start of April, with a fairly widespread inch still in the latest runs for the majority of the Russian winter wheat areas and slightly less forecast for winter wheat in Ukraine.

Australia

Australian current crop cash markets nominally were stronger, but liquidity was limited.

Exporters are reporting further strengthening freight rates, the rally in ocean freight markets rolling forward. While it increases Australia’s competitiveness regionally, it hurts Australia’s chances of pricing into more distant destinations.

The BOM’s rain forecasts seem to have been spot on as a widespread 2″+ fell across central and northern NSW through Monday/Tuesday. Clearer conditions forecast for the remainder of the week should now bring a little respite.

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