Daily Market Wire 24 May 2019

Lachstock Consulting, May 24, 2019

US futures closed lower again overnight, Europe moved small steps only;

    • Chicago wheat July contract down 2.5c/bu to 470.25;
    • Kansas wheat July contract was down 7c/bu to 425.25;
    • Minneapolis wheat July contract down 9.5c/bu to 534.25
    • MATIF wheat September contract up EUR0.5/t to 175.50
    • Corn July contract down 4.75 to 389.75
    • Soybeans July contract down 7 to 821.5
    • Winnipeg canola July contract down $C4/t to $C441.80
    • MATIF rapeseed August contract down EUR0.5/t to EUR365.25
    • Dow Jones fell 286.14 points to 24,490.47
    • Crude oil July contract down 3.51USD/bbl to $57.91
    • AUD up to 0.6900
    • CAD down to 1.3474
    • EUR up to 1.1183

US announces MFP (Market Facilitation Program)

A strange session overnight – seems I’m saying that a lot lately – as the Trump administration outlined the details of their bailout plan for the US farmer to compensate for the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China. Accessing the announcement was a challenge for many as the distribution was via a registration/call back type deal which was not overly efficient. The key points of the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) provide growers with a payment based on what they have planted – but the payment is calculated on a county basis. The USDA will assess the impact the trade dispute has had on a county and then individual growers will be paid depending on what you have planted. This is where it gets confusing. What if you can’t plant? Given the challenges the US grower has had getting the crop in does this announcement influence the growers decision to take their Prevent Plant insurance payment or do they plant post the pp date to collect the MFP? It’s a tangled web. This questions assumes the US grower can get it in; still a pretty horrible outlook with up to 8 inches forecast in Kansas and Missouri. Some vague relief in the back end of the forecast but hard to assess if this is an opening or the ground is simply too wet. Post the close tonight we will get the CFTC COT report which will be extremely interesting to the market – given July corn was up over 25c/bu and Chicago Wheat was up 30.25c/bu over the reporting period the market will be looking for the short to have trimmed significantly. A very hard one to predict given the growth in open interest which could suggest the US grower has sold some new crop corn on this rally and, maybe the corn spec short has not done the work they need too. Then on Monday night we get the planting update – this will set the tone for next week.


Locally the excitement in the old crop market continued with ASW1 firming in WA along with the east coast markets finding some support. We are stuck in a rainfall pattern with nothing on the back end for WA, NSW or QLD. In fact, the maps are a little dire out till the 8th of June – still time, but the clock is ticking.


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