Markets

Daily Market Wire 24 May 2021

Lachstock Consulting, May 24, 2021

All markets continued lower, except Minneapolis spring wheat.

  • Chicago wheat July contract down US1c/bu to 674.25c;
  • Kansas wheat July contract down 1c/bu to 621c;
  • Minneapolis wheat July contract up 5c/bu to 700.5c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €1/t to €212.75/t;
  • Corn July contract down 5c/bu to 659.5c;
  • Soybeans July contract down 7c/bu to 1526.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola July contract down C$20/t to $883.20;
  • MATIF rapeseed August contract down €3.25/t to €524.75/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.2 to 90;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.773;
  • CAD weaker at $1.207;
  • EUR weaker at $1.218;
  • ASX wheat July contract up A$4.50/t to $309.50/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $1/t to $307/t.

International

What a week – Chicago wheat fell 2.5usc/bu to close the week at 674.25usc/bu, down just under 30usc/bu over the week. Kansas eased 2usc/bu while Minni managed to finish in the green, closing up 5usc/bu to close the sunny side of 700usc/bu. Corn fell 8usc/bu 659.25usc/bu which was up 17.25usc/bu over the week. Soybeans were down 8.5usc/bu, meal was off USD$3/st and oil was down 0.28usc/lb. The Dow settled up 123 points while the Aussie was trading at 0.7725.

US spring wheat areas continue to miss much needed rainfall. The USDA will start reporting the crop condition as of tonight which are expected to be woeful at best. Additionally, the Canadian spring wheat areas are also suffering from a lack of moisture, although this will go some way toward offsetting what will be a massive HRW crop. Conjecture around the size of the Russian crop also continues, but it feels like we may end up just south of 80 million tonnes (Mt) if the rumours prove near the mark (USDA 85Mt).

Weather patterns in WA continue to provide moisture – another 30-40mm forecast from the 28th to the 30th. From an export availability perspective this will be extremely important to the Asian miller.

The political relationship between the EU and China has worsened. The European parliament voted last Thursday to freeze the proposed new investment agreement with China. This comes in response to Beijing sanctioning 10 EU parliamentarians after they questioned Chinas’ treatment of its Uyghur people in Xinjiang.

The French wheat crop was again rated at 79pc good-to-excellent, well above last year’s 57pc.

Argentina is reporting that 7 ships carrying grain have been stranded by low Parana River levels. A loading strike caused boats to be caught with too much supply on board as river levels declined amid a lack of water flow from Brazil.

Australia

New crop wheat markets finished the week down $10-12/t across most port zones. Domestic January-onwards barley markets across the east coast remained relatively unchanged over the week, the Eastern Australian feed barley ASX contract for January settling at $265, which was a touch firmer by Friday’s close. New crop canola had a roller-coaster week which saw domestic delivered crush bids unchanged for the week. Over the other side of country WA FIS grower bids finished the week at $800/t FIS Kwinana port zone.
Current crop delivered wheat bids were a touch softer on Friday for June/July slots. Barley continued to catch a bid and traded for July plus carry Geelong/Melbourne. Southern NSW barley continues to work its way down into Geelong/Melbourne range.
Weather maps are looking a touch healthier this morning, with WA set for another fantastic rain event with a widespread 15-20mm event on the 8-day BOM forecast. SA has built some more confidence in the model with rain due to hit most of the state tomorrow. It’s forecasting a widespread 5-15mm across the cropping regions. Dry run-up in the northern part of Australia will give sorghum harvest and cotton picking a good week’s run at it.

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