The Joint Coordination Committee of the Black Sea Grain Initiative has confirmed an average of 3 vessels per day have been approved  for loading in ports of Chornomorsk and Odessa, while port of Pivdennyi remains idle as Russia is not allowing ships to enter it, “Formally, the port of Pivdennyi is in the Initiative, but in fact it hasn’t been there for a month. It has no incoming fleet,” Ukrainian Deputy Renovation Minister Yuriy Vaskov told Reuters. “They (Russia) have now found an effective way to significantly reduce (Ukrainian) grain exports by excluding the port of Pivdennyi, which handles large tonnage vessels, from the initiative”. 

The EU Commission’s latest MARS bulletin increased yield forecasts for EU soft wheat, winter barley and rapeseed. Average wheat yield forecast was raised from 5.96t/ha to 6.01t/ha (3pc above 5-year avg), winter barley yield revised up to 6.0t/ha (4pc above) and rapeseed revised up to 3.34t/ha (8pc above 5-year avg). Prolonged dryness in Spain and Portugal led to a worsening of 2023-24 crop conditions, with forecast yields for major crops seen well below the previous year’s disappointing levels. Meanwhile, heavy precipitation and colder than normal conditions delayed summer crop sowing and hindered fieldwork across large parts of the region. However, excessive rains mean that soil moisture and ground-water levels in most of areas are deemed favourable. Elsewhere, while northern parts of Italy are recovering from drought, heavy rains have led to wheat and barley production losses. In the near-term, temperatures are expected to be normal to lower than average, with rainfall expected in most parts of Europe. 

The MARS Global Outlook for North Africa reports that due to prolonged drought in the Maghreb region, 2023-24 crop yields have been downgraded from before to well below normal levels with a high probability of crop failure. On the other hand, average to above-average production is expected in Libya and Egypt, where weather conditions have been more favourable and most of the crops are irrigated.

Crop Consultant Michael Cordonnier has cut his Argentine soybean crop estimate by another 1million tonnes (Mt) to 22Mt, noting yields are poor and acreage abandonment is estimated at around 2 million hectares. Dr Cordonnier kept his Argentine corn crop estimate at 35Mt, saying corn has withstood the adverse weather better than soybeans and maintained his Brazilian soybean crop estimate at 155Mt and corn at 125Mt.

Brazil has declared a state of animal health emergency for 180 days in response to the country’s first ever cases of avian influenza (HPAI) in wild birds. The Ag Ministry has created an emergency operations centre to coordinate, plan and evaluate “national actions related to avian influenza.” Brazil is the world’s largest chicken meat exporter with $9.7 billion in sales last year and has so far confirmed eight cases of the H5N1 strain of HPAI in wild birds since 15 May.

The US has reportedly purchased about 210kmt of EU milling wheat with 12.5pc to 13pc protein from Poland (150kmt) and Germany (60kmt) for shipment between May and August. 

Current and new-crop wheat and barley markets were A$1-$2/t firmer yesterday by the day’s end. Liquidity continued to trickle out on old crop-wheat front. Grower engagement on new crop remains low. given this highly watched forecast for the next 10-15 days, which still looks positive for South Australia and Victoria.

Planting pace is estimated to be around 75pc complete in northern Western Australia and 60-70pc in southern regions. SA is around 75pc complete with growers waiting on the next rainfall event to keep going. Vic is estimated to be at the 90pc mark, although some regions remain very wet with more rain on the way. New South Wales is around 75-80pc complete in most regions, and dry conditions for some have meant that progress is still only around the 30pc mark in the north and north-west, although the planting window for cereals will be open well into June.