Daily Market Wire 24 October 2018

Lachstock Consulting, October 24, 2018

Another mixed day of trading in northern hemisphere markets, with equity and energy markets suffering strong losses which flowed into the vegoil and soft seed complex.  Otherwise steady in the grain and protein markets.

  • CBOT wheat up 1c to 509c
  • Kansas wheat down 0.25c to 507.5c
  • Spring wheat down -0.5c to 585c.
  • CBOT corn up 1.25c to 370.25c.
  • Soybeans down 1c to 857.5c
  • Winnipeg canola down C$3.50 to C$488
  • Matif canola down €1.50 to €371.75,
  • Dow Jones down -125.98 to 25,191.43,
  • Crude oil down 4.71pc to $66.09
  • AUD unchanged at $0.708,
  • CAD up tad to $0.7643,
  • EUR up 0.1% to 1.1472.

Energy news

Crude and equity markets were under a lot of pressure today amid geopolitical tensions.  Equity markets managed to rebound off the lows, however crude oil suffered a large down day.  Talk about oil demand falling due to uncertainty on the global economic outlook, along with Saudi Arabia’s crisis around the alleged murder of a journalist.


Wheat showed modest gains but is yet to find any decent export demand out there.  For now the market continues to grind lower until we can find that much needed demand switch from the rest of the world to the US.  Winter wheat is now 72pc planted, vs. 77pc on average, with emergence of 53pc just shy of the 55pc average.


Corn finished with a modest increase over the day.  Harvest pace lifted 10pc to 49pc and has slightly pushed ahead of average pace.  The focus remains on getting through the weather windows to get this crop off as farmers juggle between corn and bean fields depending on conditions.


Beans were largely unchanged overnight, with oilshare weakening further on the softer energy markets.  Harvest pace has improved, lifting 15pc for the week to 53pc done, in comparison to 67pc this time last year and 69pc on average.  No fresh news on the demand side of the equation with all eyes still pointed to China.  Soybean meal was down US$2.10/t and Soy oil was down -0.40 points.


Canola struggled under ongoing pressure from the vegoil complex.  Farmer selling increased with harvest pace ahead of a long weekend in Canada and a return to wetter conditions.  The potential for harvest to slow yet again, provided some support.  Short-term technicals in the canola market remain negative and are attracting new shorts to the market.


Aussie cash markets continued its softer vibe yesterday, albeit again in limited volumes.  Markets generally $2-5/t softer, with both sides of the market standoffish as they look for some validation in the market.  The rain across the north has helped, but there has been little respite in south and no further boosting rains for SA or WA.  The market will no doubt continue in this limbo until we get into harvest and see some liquidity.

Source: Lachstock Consulting


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