Futures settled lower for wheat, corn and oilseeds in overnight trade.
- Chicago wheat December contract down US9 cents per bushel to 549c;
- Kansas wheat December contract down 7.5c/bu to 484.25c;
- Minneapolis wheat December contract down 6.75c at 533c;
- MATIF wheat December contract down €0.75 per tonne to €194;
- Corn December contract down 0.75c/bu to 368.5c;
- Soybeans November contract down 5.25c/bu to 1014.5c;
- Winnipeg canola November down C$1.60/t to $519.60;
- MATIF rapeseed November contract down €4.50/t to €386.25;
- Brent crude November contract up US$0.05 per barrel to $41.77;
- Dow Jones index down 525 points to 26,763;
- AUD weaker at $0.708;
- CAD weaker at $1.338;
- EUR weaker at $1.167.
Price direction in global markets is becoming increasingly reliant on Russian winter-crop planting. Post an 80-million-tonne (Mt) type crop, values have priced in a large amount of risk premium in an effort to protect against a winter-crop fail. Planting conditions have been challenging to date, but there is still time. Forecasts have built in some moisture for central Ukraine; the market will decide if that will provide any relief to current production estimates.
COVID is back in the wires as a market driver. With cases increasing in the US and EU, demand erosion is again in question. Conversely, China’s demand is apparently bulletproof, and should be reflected in this week’s export sales. On corn and soybeans, 2020-21 export sales are at levels not seen since 1990-91, with corn on 9.2Mt booked to China versus 60,000t last year being the standout.
Germany has confirmed another nine African Swine Fever cases, which puts the total count at 29.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has forecast Argentina’s wheat crop at 17.5Mt versus USDA’s estimate of 19Mt, corn at 47Mt, or 3Mt below the USDA number, and soybeans at 46.5Mt versus 53.5Mt seen by USDA.
New-crop wheat values continued to find strength yesterday, being up AU$5-$6/t with east coast APW values around $300/t track. New-crop barley also maintained its rage, with values up $7-8/t across the board, with Western Australian free in store barley going to around $255/t. Canola has remained relatively flat for the week since its recent rally.
Showers of rain continue to push across South Australia and Victoria to drip-feed crops while the eight-day Bureau of Meteorology remains positive outlook for rain on the way in southern NSW. In Western Australia, dry conditions have production estimates starting to go backwards in some areas, and the market will watch this closely over the coming week.
Source: Lachstock Consulting