International

The latest European Commission MARS outlook noted that a 3pc downward revision to yield forecasts for corn and sunflowers, at the EU level, reflects a worsened outlook for summer crops in southern-central and eastern Europe. The yield outlook is particularly poor in Bulgaria and Romania. It also noted that the distinct and long-lasting rainfall deficit continued and expanded in eastern Ukraine, southern Russia and Belarus, with negative impacts on the grain filling of summer crops.  

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported that for the week ending 23 September, cumulative 2024-25 exports are 9.4Mt, up 53pc year on year, including wheat at 5.4Mt (+80pc), maize at 2.6Mt (+1pc) and barley at 1.2Mt (+103pc). 

AgRural estimates that Brazil’s 2024-25 soybean plant was less than 1pc complete as of September 19, compared to 2pc last year. Parana state is making good progress, which is responsible for almost all of the area planted to date. In Mato Grosso, dry and hot weather is still predominant, keeping producers waiting for more favourable conditions for sowing. Summer corn planting is 26pc complete in Brazil’s Center-South, slightly ahead of last years pace. 

Iran’s SLAL, reportedly seeks 120kt of feed barley from optional origins (incl. the EU, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and other Black Sea suppliers), for Oct/Nov shipment. 

Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120kt of feed barley, optional origins for Dec/Jan shipment. 

US private exporters reported sales of 165kt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.

Australia

The next 8 days looks set to bring some decent falls for large areas of Australia’s cropping regions. Vic and SA are forecast to receive up to 25mm for most parts, this may be too late for some regions through SA and Vic but should help put a stop on yield losses for now. Cropping regions of WA have 5-15mm on the forecast but more is needed. NSW and Qld are forecast to receive between 25-50mm for most regions, which may cause headaches for those who have cut frosted crops. 

Bids in the east of Australia were largely unchanged for most commodities yesterday with canola bid A$708/t, wheat $344/t and barley $295/t. Delivered Darling Downs markets yesterday were bid $295/t for barley and $325/t for wheat. 

The RBA is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.35pc at today’s meeting, with an expectation from most economists that they will not start to ease rates until early 2025.