Correction: Editor’s note.This Daily Market Wire as originally published included a reference to India’s Agriculture ministry forecasting a 109 million tonnes (Mt) wheat . That statement for the moment is not corroborated. The local USDA post suggested a record wheat crop but left its figure unchanged from previously and unchanged from the WASDE estimate, which was 107.6Mt. Grain Central has deleted the sentence.
Nearly all markets firmed. Winnipeg canola finally breaking off the short squeeze to close lower even as Matif rapeseed gained.
- Chicago wheat May contract up 15.25c/bu to 685.5;
- Kansas wheat May contract up 15.75c/bu to 663;
- Minneapolis wheat May contract up 9.5c/bu to 657.5;
- MATIF wheat May contract up €3.25/t to €232.75/t;
- Corn May contract up 4.5c/bu to 557;
- Soybeans May contract up 17.25c/bu to 1425.75;
- Winnipeg canola May contract down C$10.60/t to $765.20;
- MATIF rapeseed May contract up €12.50/t to €484.50;
- US dollar index down 0.04 to 90.1
- AUD firmer at $0.797;
- CAD firmer at $1.251;
- EUR firmer at $1.217;
- ASX wheat May contract down $0.50/t to 301;
- ASX wheat January 2021 contract down $1/t to 305.
Grain markets caught a bid overnight with some technical support and ongoing speculation about the tight old crop EU situation helping wheat settle up. Crude oil also spiked with WTI hitting $63.2 (up a buck fifty / $67.0 Brent and the DOW jumped 441 points after announcements that the US government intends to pass the updated stimulus bill by this Friday which would let it be signed before March 14.
First notice day for March futures contracts is this Friday.
The expanded US stimulus bill is finally coming and despite consistent expectations that it would pass, the news has brought a spike of optimism to the markets. Now we’re back into inflation discussions, and questions about what will be the real impact of the spending.
What’s new on the grain side overnight? Overall, not much – but the sentiment has helped pile on and encouraged renewed consideration of previous crop risks and tight balance sheets.
Still no new US export sales flashes, but more Chinese buying interest continues to be reported in global origins.
Weather maps are shifting slightly wetter again across central Brazilian soybean areas and renewing some concerns about both harvest delays (harvest has been moving but is still behind normal pace) and quality/production risk.
There’s talk doing the rounds about defaults on old origination contracts in Brazil. Lawsuits are being filed and there are questions about how much of the old sales book will end up arriving, given the large increase in bean prices since planting.
US ethanol production dropped sharply in the latest figures, with government estimates down from 911,000 bpd to 658,000bpd after the cold snap the other week temporarily idled some plants. They should pick back up fairly quickly. Stocks were also down substantially by 1.5 million to 22.8 million barrels with the lower runs.
New crop cash wheat markets kicking yet again in the Black Sea, with $3-5/t increases being reported across the last few days.
Aussie markets have remained quiet and fairly steady with some limited cash volumes trading on the cash side. The ASX does continue to see good volumes but broke off $3 yesterday by the close.
The rains have been coming across the Darling Downs with a few locations pushing over 10 mm by the Queensland/NSW border but most of the heavier falls to date north of Miles. Latest BOM models still calling for widespread 20-30mm in northern NSW.
Source: Lachstock Consulting